Portugal v Turkey- Match odds, Correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals
Match 02 - Portugal v Turkey 
/ Matthew Walton / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment
The chances are that Mladen Petric probably did you a favour by scoring Croatia's winner against England back in November.
It should be a relief that because of his wonder-strike you won't get carried away on a tidal wave of under-achievement and will actually get to study the football instead.
As we're keen to state in all our pieces, betting should always be done with the head and not the heart and a lack of home participation should help us all in this respect.
This match, in Group A, puts together the Portuguese at No.11 in the world rankings and the Turks who are nine places lower at No.20. Both nations are now firmly established on the European scene with top players spread throughout many nation's top divisions.
As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our preview with a look at key Match Facts which cover specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.
Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.
Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.
Portugal v Turkey - 10 Year Trends
These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies, just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus European qualifiers and finals.
Portugal - P67 W43 D15 L9 F155 A45, clean sheets 34/67 (51%)
Turkey - P69 W37 D20 L12 F123 A57, clean sheets 35/69 (51%)
Portugal have a high win ratio (64%) and very low losses (13%). They score an average of 2.31 goals/game but concede only 0.67. Turkey have a similar profile but have slightly worse figures in every case - 54% wins, 18% losses, 1.78 goals/game scored and 0.82 goals/game conceded. Clean sheets are identical and the number of draws very close.
Portugal v Turkey - Match Facts
The head-to-head meetings offer little great insight - too few, too long ago. Portugal under Scolari are impressive. Free-scoring and tough to beat. Fatih Terim has presided over the Turks in a period where they have probably gone a little past their peak.
Portugal qualified with one loss in 14 matches, have a proven track record in these finals (RU in 2004) and have flair players in abundance. They appear to have few weaknesses and score from any number of positions.
Turkey's qualifying group was weak and they have a very poor historical record in these finals (one win in 7 matches). There's no Hakan Sukur upfront and under Terim they do concede goals - Turkey have kept just 15 clean sheets in his 38 games (38%).
Portugal v Turkey - Market Analysis
Outright result - Portugal have won 5 of the 6 past meetings (83%). Their past record in these finals, 10 wins from 19 games (53%), is much better than Turkey's one win in 7 matches (14%). On this basis [1.77] appears about right for the Portuguese to win.
Correct Score - both Turkey's qualification losses were by the odd goal. Portugal notched 4 of their 7 qualifying wins by the odd goal (plus a 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0). This would suggest a Portugal 1-0 [6.6] has appeal with possibly the 2-0 [8.2] as a saver.
First Goalscorer - after his stupendous season, Ronaldo will be the obvious choice of many backers. However, Simao scores his fair share (15 in 60 matches) and may present a value alternative as he could also be called upon for penalty taking duties.
Over/Under 1.5 goals - much depends upon your view of whether Turkey will score. That said, in 12 qualification matches they had over 1.5 goals in 9 (75%). The Portuguese were over in 12 of 14 games (86%). Even so the [1.43] doesn't scream value.
Conclusion
A lot of backers will have Portugal down to win the tournament let alone this first match.
And, in this respect, there is encouragement to back Scolari's men to get off to a good start - in general play and in head-to-head encounters. However, despite such statistics there is a sub-text to this research which suggests Turkey won't lie down easily, Portugal may have to work for their win (they did draw 6 of 12 qualifying games).
Overall, a Turkish win does look unlikely and, given the prices, it might even be worth taking the view they won't score in this match. As ever, we'll shortly find out but in the meantime, it's time to start betting!
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