Match 02 - Portugal v Turkey / Dan Fitch / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The BBC are currently asking "Who will you support?" in what is a misguided perception that it is necessary to support one of the teams involved to enjoy Euro 2008.

It is true that without England there will be no true emotional highs, but then neither will there be the inevitable gut wrenching disappointment. At no point will I cry, question my allegiances, or get so drunk that I vomit. That can all wait until my wedding in September.

The only team that I will be supporting during Euro 2008 will ironically be the BBC. Despite recent dodgy signings like Dixon and Shearer, the Beeb remain number one in the world of TV football coverage and can always be relied upon to pull a maverick out of the hat like Leonardo, when it comes to an international tournament.

Thus it is with great resentment that I will be tuning into ITV to see their first game of the championship, between Portugal and Turkey. Bound to be especially annoying, will be Clive Tyldesley. The erstwhile Tyldesley is nothing if not predictable and I dread to think how many times he'll make mention of Cristiano Ronaldo's proposed move to Real Madrid.

At some point it will get all too much for me and I'll end up shouting at the television, which is an activity that I prefer to limit to the time that I spend being forced to watch Eastenders by my girlfriend. But despite ITV's attempts to spoil this match for me, it promises to be an interesting encounter.

For many years now Portugal have been an almost outstanding team. Strong in defence and with a breathtaking midfield, the Portuguese are blighted with an array of strikers for whom the phrase 'powder puff' appears to have been invented. If an accident of birth had given Portugal a striker as capable as say, James Beattie, then they would have already have won a World Cup.

Turkey are much the same as Portugal, only without the part about their defence being strong. If the BBC had their way and I was throwing my support behind one team, then it should be Turkey, having picked them in an office sweepstake last night. Instead, upon drawing out the Turkish flag from the hat, I childishly tore it in two. I immediately regretted this, upon remembering that one of my colleagues is a Turkish fellow of such muscular proportions, that he appears to have been chiselled out of granite.

Fortunately I survived this social faux pas, to be able to give the low-down on the 2.5 goals market for this match. With neither side boasting a decent striker, this match could be like soft porn; entertaining enough to watch, but frustratingly short of any penetration.

In qualification both teams proved to be maddeningly inconsistent, finishing second in their groups to less gifted nations. Portugal's qualifying matches averaged out at 2.4 goals per game, with just 50% of their games played breaking the 2.5 goals mark.

Turkey's matches averaged an impressive 3 goals per game, but in truth this was boosted by a couple of heavy wins against Malta and only 58% of their games featured 3 or more goals. The last major tournament they qualified for was World Cup 2002, in which they reached the semi finals. On that occasion they twice broke 2.5 in the group stages, but laboured to two 1-0 wins in the knockout stages, before being eliminated by Brazil.

Portugal were only involved in one match of 3 goals or more, from their 6 games in the 2006 World Cup, despite their group containing Angola and Iran. Against stronger sides at Euro 2004, they broke 2.5 goals in 3 of their 6 games, as they reached the final.

Under 2.5 goals is [1.7], with overs at [2.4]. Despite the defensive problems of the Turkish, I see this being tight and under 2.5 goals is the way to go. Ronaldo may be expected to score bucketoads, but there's no Rooney and Tevez to do all his donkey work here and it should be noted that only 2 of his 20 international goals, have been scored against sides ranked in FIFA's top 10. Did I hear the phrase 'flat track bully'?

Tags: Cristiano Ronaldo, Euro 2008 bets, football on ITV