Portugal v Turkey - Half-Time, Half Time/Full Time, clean sheet for both teams

Match 02 - Portugal v Turkey / Editor / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

EURO 2008: PORTUGAL v TURKEY

Half-Time

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, which indicates that backing the HT draw across the board has some merit as it is odds-against in seven of the eight opening group games this year, including this match ([2.26]). Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2.

Portugal have been drawing at HT in 9/20 competitive games outside Portugal under Luiz Felipe Scolari, and on neural territory at the 2006 World Cup they were level at HT in 2/6.
Against teams ranked in the top 10, Turkey since 1996 have been drawing at HT in 9/12, and they have been level at HT in 7/14 games outside Turkey since 2004.

The strongest team in the group (in this case, Portugal) has had a high draw rate in their opening game at European Championships since 1980 (W7-D11-L2). The HT draw rate is also high (15/20).

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D at [5.6] looks too big.

In the opening game for the strongest team in the group at European Championships since 1980, D-D (eight) and D-W for the strongest team (six) account for 14/20 of the HT/FT outcomes.

In competitive games outside Portugal under Luiz Felipe Scolari, the most common HT/FT result for Portugal has been W-W (7/20), followed by D-D (5). At the 2006 World Cup they had W-W in 3/6.

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Turkey since 1996 have been drawing at HT in 9/12, so their most common results all revolve around the draw (four D-D, three D-L and two D-W). They have lost only 2/14 games outside Turkey since 2004, with four D-W, three W-W and three L-D.

Portugal clean sheet

Portugal have kept a clean sheet in 9/20 under Luiz Felipe Scolari outside Portugal and they were very solid at the 2006 World Cup, keeping a clean sheet in 4/6. In all games under Scolari against teams ranked outside the top 10, they have kept a clean sheet in 17/32.

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Turkey have scored in 6/12 games since 1996 but have failed to score in four of their last five.

The strongest team in the group has kept a clean sheet in their opening game nine times out of 20 at European Championships since 1980 and with the Portuguese clean sheet priced close to 2.0's there's no value in that price.

Turkey clean sheet

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Turkey are W3-D5-L4 since 1996 and notably 4/5 draws have been 0-0. They have kept a clean sheet in half of those 12 games and shutting out the opposition has been a key factor as they are W2-D4-L0 when keeping a clean sheet and W1-D1-L4 when conceding.

Since the start of Euro 96 qualifying, Portugal have compiled a solid record against opponents ranked in the top 20, losing only 4/24 and scoring in 19/24. Under Luiz Felipe Scolari, they have scored in 34/39 competitive games, including 20 of their last 23 (two of those failures were against France and England at the 2006 World Cup and the latest was 0-0 at home to Finland in their final group game when that result suited them).

The strongest team in the group has scored 15 times out of 20 in their opening game at European Championships since 1980. Turkey failing to keep out the Portuguese is heavily odds-on at [1.23] and rightly so.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Portugal football team