Match 01 - Switzerland v Czech Republic / Matthew Walton / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The lack of any home interest in these championships may well prove to be a blessing in disguise.

We're spared the patriotic punting that so often leads to financial ruin. It's not just our national sides which suffer heartbreaking losses, so do our betting banks.

This lack of domestic involvement should see us approaching the coming action with detached objectivity, calculated strategies and, we trust, profitable intentions.

We start with the host nation, Switzerland, against the Czech Republic. On paper it's No.44 in the world against No.6. Yes, we have home advantage for the Swiss but they are playing one of Europe's, if not the world's, top sides.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our preview with a look at key Match Facts which cover specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Switzerland v Czech Republic - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies, just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus European qualifiers and finals.

Switzerland - P45 W19 D16 L10 F69 A45, clean sheets 20/45 (44%)
Czech Republic - P67 W49 D6 L12 F149 A48, clean sheets 34/67 (51%)

Switzerland have a high percentage of draws and have only lost slightly more than the Czech Republic (22% to 18%). Czech Republic have won 73% of their games compared to the Swiss 42%, they score more goals (2.22/game to 1.53/game) and also have a better defensive record.

Switzerland v Czech Republic - Match Facts

The head-to-head meetings point firmly to the Czech Republic. They have won 53% of past meetings and four of the last five. Bruckner's managerial record is far superior to Kuhn's and the Czech qualification campaign was impressive.

Switzerland, as hosts, have been left to develop by way of friendly action. Not a great form guide but even so the facts provide little encouragement. A 50% win/loss record and a defence which has shipped 1.5 goals/game.

Add to this the championship record of the two sides and it looks as though Switzerland's only hope will be through their ability to keep the game tight and trust the Czech's start in a cautious manner without their injured skipper, Rosicky - hardly their usual style!

Switzerland v Czech Republic - Market Analysis

Outright result - The draw is the only other consideration at [3.2] given a potentially close opening match but a Swiss win looks a lay at [2.94] barring a poor Czech performance.

Correct Score - the Swiss concede, the Czechs score. If you follow the logic of the outright result, plus the averages from the above analysis, the 2-0 [16.0] or 2-1 [13.5] must have appeal. The 1-1 draw [6.8] would be the logical saver if the game is tight.

First Goalscorer - the figures point to the Czechs. They score more than the Swiss and have a better defensive record. Jan Koller (available at around [8.0]) and Milan Baros (also [8.0] have good scoring records and deserve to head the market with Alexander Frei at [7.0] the obvious saver for the Swiss.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - opening matches are traditionally low-scoring but this sole reason is the only inducement to go low here. The last five meetings have all been 'over' and the scoring statistics of each side suggest even [1.57] on over 1.5 goals is a fair price for this bet.

Conclusion

This first match is the classic set-up between statistics and 'soccer sense'.

On the one hand, the figures point squarely to the Czech Republic having much the better of this match. However, on the other, many will say Switzerland as the host nation, wanting to do well in front of their own fans, will perform above themselves and get some kind of result.

The immovable force and the irresistible object. Regardless of who prevails, it's a great match to start a great tournament - so what are you waiting for? Get on that exchange right now!

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, jan Koller