Match 01 - Switzerland v Czech Republic / Dave Farrar / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

If you had tried to pick a worse opening game than this one for the opening of a major championship, then you'd have struggled.

If you had tried to pick a worse opening game than this one for the opening of a major championship, then you'd have struggled. An ageing Czech Republic against one of Europe's hardest working and dullest teams. I think that both of these sides will go out of the tournament before the quarter finals, and so they're playing for 3rd place in the Group.

Sadly, it's not a game that appeals from a punting point of view, so I advise you to keep stakes low and save your budget for later on in the competition. There are a couple of things worth speculating on, though, and, with home advantage, you have to get with the Swiss to ensure that false optimism is cranked up yet another notch for Kobi Kuhn's team, and back them to open with a win.

Their price of [2.9] is fair, and I'd certainly rather do that than support the Czechs. Karel Bruckner's two key players should have been Rosicky and Nedved, but because of injury and international retirement, neither is there. Without them, it's hard to see how the Czechs can play with the necessary tempo to trouble the Swiss. And if they are able to create chances, then who will take them? Jan Koller and Milan Baros have scored 85 international goals between them, the rest of the squad a combined total of 34. Baros didn't score in the league this season and Koller managed only 6. If the brilliant youngster Martin Fenin features, then he will add some spark, but the Frankfurt man is yet to score in international football, and it's asking a lot for him to be decisive here. Switzerland don't excite me, but they're lively at least, and they have to be the value call.

CORRECT SCORE

A massive temptation to choose "no goalscorer" here, as the Swiss opened the last championships with a 0-0 draw and that outcome is a serious runner. They haven't drawn 0-0 since the 2006 World Cup, though, and while I don't buy into the idea that they've suddenly become Brazil in disguise, they're obviously a little more expansive. Maybe I'm being seduced too much by the thought of a passionate home crowd, but the St Jakob Park was a major factor in spurring on FC Basel under Christian Gross, and so I'm taking the Swiss to get their only win of the tournament here, by a 1-0 scoreline.

FIRST GOALSCORER

The obvious choice here is Alexander Frei, because of his outstanding record, but his price is short enough, and, aside from Gokhan Inler, a player I really like, I can't see too much potential from elsewhere. After seeing Ludovic Magnin score a terrific free kick for Werder Bremen in a pre season match two years ago, I've lost a fair amount backing him in these sorts of markets. He does like to maraud forward, and at the back of my mind is the thought that a similar kind of left back, Phillip Lahm, scored the opening goal of World Cup 2006. Could it happen again? Well, I think that a set piece will separate the sides, but I can't keep letting Magnin lose me money, so Phillippe Senderos gets the nod. I like the way that he attacks the ball at corner kicks and free kicks and Switzerland deliver them pretty well. So Senderos it is at [25.0] or bigger, but if Magnin does score, then my toys are officially out of the pram.

HALF TIME

It will surely be a game of few goals, and these opening matches almost always involve teams spending at least 20 minutes feeling each other out. The Czechs scored early goals in four of their six crucial Group games, but Switzerland will prove more sturdy than Germany, Slovakia or Ireland and I think that Bruckner's team will struggle to score at all. A cautious first half, so half time draw at [2.08] is the play

CORNERS

The former Arsenal centre back Stewart Robson, now a very shrewd analyser of the game, has told me to watch Switzerland carefully with regard to corners, as he doesn't feel that they defend wide areas very well, and that their defensive leader Senderos is liable to slice the ball behind more often than he ought. Add to that the goalkeeper Benaglio, who doesn't hold much, and Switzerland may be involved in relatively high corner counts, but not against a narrow team like the Czechs. I'd swerve this market in this match, but watch the Swiss carefully against both Portugal and Turkey, both of whom play with recognised wide men.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Senderos, Switzerland betting