Match 01 - Switzerland v Czech Republic / Dan Fitch / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

So here we are again. The second most prestigious international football tournament in the world (and the most difficult one to win) is with us once more.

With no clear favourite and no England to make us alternate between feelings of elation and nausea, it all points to an enjoyable tournament. Unless that is Greece bore everyone into submission and spoil it all again.

With no home nations to cheer on, we Brits are in the luxurious position of having no emotional investment in the tournament and therefore are able to make reasoned judgements based on current form, tactical analysis and the strength of our xenophobia against each particular nation.

The ultimate bet for the neutral is of course the over 2.5 goals market. With this bet we can cheer on both teams (unless one is Germany) and hopefully make some money. Now making money is where I come in, as for each game I'll be taking an in depth look at the chances of the three goal target being reached, whilst also making lots of cheap jokes based on national stereotypes.

We start with joint hosts Switzerland taking on the Czech Republic. It's not the thrilling opening we might have hoped for and it makes you wonder why UEFA don't follow the lead of the World Cup, by making the first game involve the winner of the last tournament. But then we remember that we'd be watching Greece and a feeling of sudden relief sweeps through us.

I'm not sure that I like this system of having dual hosts and which effectively allows two rubbish sides to automatically qualify, at the expense of one of the many rubbish sides from the British Isles. Of the hosts, Switzerland get to play first by virtue of being mildly more glamorous than Austria. This is a bit like being the sexier one out of a pair of twins, because your sibling has a hair lip.

The Czech Republic are one of sides that will be described as a 'dark horse'. Ancient football folklore dictates that to qualify for such a description, the team in question must be from Eastern Europe and must at no point during the tournament look remotely capable of winning it.

But whilst they may not have any chance of winning Euro 2008, they have a decent chance of getting out of Group A. Their forward line certainly promises goals. Milan Baros may run around at Portsmouth like someone who's got a wasp trapped in their crash helmet, but 31 goals from 59 games is a great record at international level and he was the top scorer in Euro 2004.

Equally impressive is the record of 51 goals from 86 games, as amassed by his strike partner Jan Koller. He may now be 35 and ready to retire after Euro 2008, but let's face it, his game has never been about lightning pace and tremendous dribbling skills.

In qualifying, the Czechs' matches averaged at 2.66 goals per game, with 58% of these games actually breaking the 2.5 goal barrier. Their record at the last European Championship bodes well for overs backers, with each of their group games featuring at least 3 goals.

The Swiss haven't had to qualify and therefore have only played friendlies for the last two years. As we all know, friendlies bare as much of a resemblance to a competitive game of football as a bowl of blamange, so we need to look back to World Cup 2006.

Despite featuring the ticking time bomb of inconsistency that is Phillipe Senderos, the Swiss didn't concede a single goal in their four World Cup matches in Germany and didn't break 2.5 goals once.

If this sounds ominous, solace comes from the fact that the opening game of the tournament in both 2004 and 2000, have produced 3 goals. However, the 1996 tournament opener ended in a memorably boring 1-1 draw between England and yes, you've guessed it... Switzerland.

Under 2.5 goals is the odds on favourite at [1.59], with overs at [2.66]. Despite the defensive style of the Swiss, I think over 2.5 is too big and one to back, with a view to trade.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Euro 2008 opening match, Switzerland football