Match 01 - Switzerland v Czech Republic / Ben Lyttleton / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Karel Bruckner has been walking around like a bear with a sore head in recent weeks, and not just because his captain and best player Tomas Rosicky was ruled out of Euro 2008 after six months of trying to get fit for it. Nor was it because the Czech federation welcomed Lithuania for last week's friendly match by printing the Latvia flag and line-up in the match programme and playing the Latvian national anthem. No, the Czech coach has been in a grump because he had neck surgery last month and the cold and wet weather in Prague has slowed down his recovery process.

Will he be in a better mood after the opening match of Euro 2008 against hosts Switzerland? Well, even if the Czechs win, Bruckner is unlikely to do much smiling: I remember seeing him after his side knocked Germany out of Euro 2004 and as the press fawned over him, his expression was disdainful,to put it mildly.

And yet the omens appear to be in his favour: out of the last five European Championship opening matches, only one has been won by the hosts and that was Belgium in 2000, when they beat Sweden 2-1 but went on to finish third in the group. In the past, hosts Portugal, England, Sweden and West Germany have failed to win their opening matches, but managed to get out of their groups.

Switzerland may not be so fortunate and with both teams going into the tournament with defence-first tactics, we should not expect a feast of goals. With that in mind, it may well be worth backing either the [5.1] on the Czech/Czech half-time/full-time market or the [6.8] on the half-time draw/Czech win.

All eyes will be on referee Roberto Rossetti to see how he handles the Uefa directives that are focused on stamping out dissent and the use of elbows.

Usually the first game is low on bookings (there were four in the last Euro opener, and three combined in the last two World Cup openers) and the Czechs are a disciplined team, receiving just 14 yellows, and no reds, in their 12 qualifiers. This is clearly a laying market, and though I would normally suggest the safest bet is to lay at [2.28] in the 9-and-above bookings market, for this one, I would lay at the [3.0] in the 6-8 market as well.

What of goals? This is a tricky market for this game, as I think not losing will be coaches¹ main priority, with goals at a premium. There doesn't seem much value in the Czechs' record goalscorer Jan Koller, priced at around [2.0], though winger Libor Sionko, scorer of two goals in the friendly win over Scotland (and three in qualifying), is a more friendly price at around 5.
Rosicky¹s replacement Marek Matejovsky, useful from distance, also represents decent value at around [10.0] on the "to score" market. I can't see the Swiss scoring many goals this month although youngster Eren Derdiyok, priced at [3.0], is likely to start on the bench so any bet on him will only count if he comes on during the match.

There is clearly little to choose between these teams: their targets are the same (just to get through the group), and their style may well cancel each other out. Unders in the under/over 2.5 goals market is an obvious tip but the lack of goal potential does make the Asian handicap market tricky to dip into. I feel that as Karel Bruckner's side may run out narrow winners, a small bet on the Czechs at +0.25 at around [1.7] might get you a return.

Tags: Czech Republic football, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting