Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 28 June 2008 / Leave a comment

In a game where there could be a lot of chances, the custodians of the nets could provide a crucial edge with some key saves. Ben Lyttleton has had plenty of opportunity to analyse the performance of both of the finalist's 'keepers, and he shares his thoughts with us.

The Euro 2008 final between Germany and Spain will be an interesting tactical battle between sides that began the tournament playing two strikers and will most likely end up starting the final with one up front. One area where no changes have been made is in goal: and while the selection of Iker Casillas has never been in doubt during Luis Aragones¹s reign, the row over Germany¹s No 1 jersey dominated the build-up to the tournament and the performances of Jens Lehmann ensured it has been simmering ever since.

One of the constant messages from the expert guests on Betfair¹s Euro 2008 Marketwatch show is that great strikers can win you a tournament, but dodgy goalkeepers can lose you one. The example of Portugal is a case in point: they were [2.56] to beat Germany in the quarter-finals but Ricardo¹s weakness from crosses cost them the game; and the same can be said for Rustu Recber in Germany¹s semi-final win over Turkey.

What could be considered ironic is that Lehmann, playing behind a defence that has regularly gone missing in action, has looked far from secure over the last month: he was at fault for Croatia¹s winner in their Group B clash and could have done more to stop Turkey¹s two goals in the semi-final. That¹s why the Germany clean sheet market is stacked in favour of Spain scoring, with the price of [3.6] not even tempting enough for me. The [1.36] for Germany to concede is short, but for a reason ­ and I like the look of it.

The Spain clean-sheet market is trading at [2.7], which might not look like value when you consider that Germany have scored six goals in their last two games. But Spain¹s first-choice defence has only conceded two goals this tournament, and only one (against Sweden) ­ when the game was in the balance.

With his saves against Mauro Camoranesi in the quarter-final, and Dmitri Sychev in the semi-final, Casillas has made a compelling case to be called the number one number one. "He is definitely the best goalkeeper in the world," said Sergio Ramos.

Casillas puts his success down to his humility: when his hometown of Mostoles asked if they could name a street after him, he only agreed on the condition that the street was "small and discreet." At Real Madrid, he is often applauded by his team-mates after a game, which he describes as embarrassing, as "I feel awkward for the reserve goalkeeper."

And while Germany worries whether their defence will be able to withstand the Spanish passing and movement, acclaim has grown for Casillas, with even the country¹s most famous bull-fighter, Jose Tomas, joining the plaudits. "Iker could easily have become a bull-fighter," he said. "Just look at the way he stays immobile just waiting for the centre-forward to show his hand."

The over-goals market has been one to follow in Germany¹s knock-out games: over 2.5 goals was [2.62] in the Portugal game, with it dropping to [2.12] for the Turkey game - but only because everyone thought Turkey would get stuffed. The over-2.5 for the final has come out to [2.4].

The last final to produce three goals in 90 minutes was West Germany¹s 2-1 win over Belgium in 1980 - but the goals these two sides have produced to reach the Vienna showpiece suggest that overs could be a good option: Spain are the highest-scorers (11 goals) while Germany second-highest (along with Holland, 10 goals).

Casillas is expected to maintain his form on Sunday night, while the real pressure will be on Lehmann, the experienced 38-year-old whose last final appearance ended with an early red card in the 2006 Champions League final. The performance of both men might determine the destination of the title, but if the adage of the dodgy goalkeeper proves right, then Spain¹s obvious strength between the sticks over Germany, [3.45] in the match-odds market, should make the difference.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Euro 2008 Final Betting, Football Betting, Germany, Iker Casillas, Jens Lehmann, Spain