Betfair Official Blog

English Football League

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Watford cannot win the Championship

Click here to view market

The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time arguing a case for top of the table Watford not finishing top of the pile come May

The Contrarian: Why Watford cannot win the Championship

Just as certain words are inherently amusing, like "gusset" or "woodcock", other expressions never fail to drain the spirit, like "Watford." The idea that anything good, exciting or even moderately enjoyable could ever emerge from Watford places enormous stress on the brain, but why?

Of course, Watford is just as capable of generating goodness, excitement and enjoyability as the next suburb, but for some reason, like it or not, it has become shorthand for a black hole of dullness. The neighbourhood football team is doing its darnedest this season to add a little fairydust by sitting proudly at the top of the Championship with 11 wins and 2 draws in their first 15 games, which is most praiseworthy considering last year's emasculating experience in the Premiership, but lap it up while you can, people of South Herts, because it cannot last.

Try as they might, Watford cannot and will not win the Championship, not even with their eight point lead, for the following reasons... (you can lay Watford to win the Championship on betfair at 2.08).

1. Because they never have before.

Since the establishment of the second division in 1892, Watford have never won it.

2. Early form is a really poor indicator of the eventual winner.

In the last eight years, only one team has been top at this stage of the season and still been top at the end of it: Portsmouth in 2002/3. Every other leader has squandered their lead, some so badly that they had to endure the embarrassment of the playoffs, while others, such as Cardiff last year, went so far off the rails they didn't even make the playoffs at all.

3. Watford have been here before and it turned out badly.

The last time Watford finished bottom of the Premier League in 1999/2000, they also found themselves at the top of the second division fifteen games into the following season, exactly as they are now. After a stellar start, unbeaten with 12 wins and 3 draws (even better than this season), they vacated the top spot one game later and went into a tail spin, losing seven and drawing one of their next eight games. They finished ninth.

4. Rarely do teams follow up a bottom place finish with a top place finish.

In the last eight seasons, only one team has recovered from a humiliating rock bottom finish in the Premiership to win the second division the following season (Sunderland last year). Of the 14 teams who have been relegated at the bottom of the Premiership (not including Watford last year), only five have ever gone straight back up, with three winning the title outright. And Watford still have time to repeat Swindon's achievement of 1994/5, when they managed to get relegated again.

5. Watford do not have superhuman powers of endurance.

No team in the last eight seasons has led the second division after fifteen games and held that lead uninterrupted all the way to the end of the year.

6. Defence is everything, and Watford don't have it.

Watford have kept just five clean sheets so far. Only three teams who have gone on to win the division since 1992/3 have kept fewer clean sheets. Watford have also conceded three goals in one game, something that hadn't happened by this stage to 11 of the 15 teams who've won the division since 1992/3. They have conceded four in one game as well - only two of the eventual winners have conceded a three and a four (or more) in their first 15 games. In fact, a leaky old defence is a really poor strategy at this stage: in the last ten years only two teams have won the division after conceding more goals at this stage (16). Sorry Watford, but thanks for trying.

To read more about Watford go to:

http://www.watfordfc.premiumtv.co.uk/page/Welcome