League Two Betting: Shrewd move to lay Shrewsbury on the outright

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 11 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont on why Shrewsbury are unlikely to be the League Two winners come May plus the best of the weekend's bets.

Buy despair, sell euphoria, says legendary American investor Warren Buffett. It has served him well in stock markets and maybe there is a correlation to be had in football betting. After all, the odds will be increasingly in your favour if the team keeps losing.

That is the case if applying the theory to individual match weekends, but of course investing in stock markets is a long-term affair. If you invest money in stocks, you can afford to wait a few months and see the stock initially go down further and be able to wait for it to rise. So perhaps the theory is best applied most successfully to the League Two outright market, where big-spending Shrewsbury have been favourites for months, although never top of the division.

They might have the division's top scorer in Grant Holt - and he jolly well ought to be after they paid £185,000 for him - but their away record has failed to convince me of their title credentials. Finally the Shrews are on the way out in the divisional betting and can be layed at [5.8]. Look at any end-of-season table and you will find that teams who are heavy on the draws and scant on wins away from home miss out o the top honours. Shrewsbury, who haven't actually won on the road since the opening week, simply have to take all three points at Grimsby to make me think they can actually win the division. That said, I'm sure fellow betting.betfair.com columnist Ben Herd would be inclined to disagree.

Buying despair can work in individual matches during the season, but you have to be careful to pick your moment. Every team has to win the odd game.

This weekend, Barnet have a great chance to kick-start their season at home odds of [3.0] - plus. A win is long overdue for the young side bossed by Paul Fairclough, who has been insisting better times are just around the corner all season.

So what better time to host Gillingham than now? The visitors to Underhill have not won a league game away since November 1, scraping a 1-0 win at Macclesfield. They have won two cup matches on the road, but beating Bury and Stockport can most definitely be locked away in the shocks department.

There are still signs of life at Barnet, with John O'Flynn determined to make an impact, Moses Adomah and Cliff Akurang capable of making an impact and Gary Breen in the wings about to add some steel to the team.

Treble backers might be tempted by an unusual state of affairs. This weekend there are four teams odd-on at home to win in the division, the highest all season when the average has been just under three. It indicates the bookmakers can't fathom which teams are the better ones at any given moment and that many of the teams are a much of a muchness.

If you are looking for a weekend hat-trick, the odds-on three to play on are Wycombe [1.7] at home to Luton, Rochdale [1.8] to beat a Bournemouth side shorn of Darren Anderton's spark and Bury at [1.9] to thrash Port Vale.

The one odds-on team to miss out, however, is Chesterfield. Friday nights always bring a few surprises and there is a chance to cash in on Macclesfield's juicy price of [4.5]. The thought of FA Cup humiliation still hangs over Lee Richardson's Chesterfield, whose results are on a downward spiral, whereas Macclesfield's turn of fortunes has coincided with the arrival on loan from Wrexham of Nat Brown.

The 27-year-old has scored three goals and just signed on at Moss Lane for another month. It is a measure of the Silkmen's improvement and heightened confidence that they were disappointed not to gain all three points against Bury last weekend.

Similarly to Barnet on the buying despair premise, Lincoln have to win again soon, although there is a slight difference to the Bees in that the Imps have some early season form to show for their efforts. They are not as bad a side as they have been in the past five weeks and can account for Accrington Stanley. Just avoid playing at even money.

Recommendations:

Lay Shrewsbury in the divisional outrights at [5.8]
Back Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield at [4.5]
Barnet to win at [3.0]
Lincoln to win at [2.1]