League Two Betting Preview: Newell's new boys can add to Wanderer's blues

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 09 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Mike Newell is back in football - taking over the reigns at Grimbsy Town - and his new charges will be out to impress against shell-shocked Wycombe, says Ian Lamont.

For the first time ever I found myself taking an interest in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy results this week.

I harbour a deep mistrust of midweek results, having found that the football fates are even more fickle than at the weekend for gambling purposes. But, as regular readers will know, I like a paradox and cup or midweek football does have uses, even if the bones need to be picked over with care.

You have to wonder how seriously sides take "league cups", especially when Wycombe lose 7-0 at home to Shrewsbury. Digging for the reason for that result shows Peter "tinker" Taylor made at least four changes, disrupting a settled side.

Taylor might think it is "nightmare over" for a team that hasn't conceded a point at home in the league (or a goal on the road) but Alan Hansen's logic about always playing your best team, no matter what the competition, is sound, because a bad result can severely knock confidence.

Combine that with Grimsby Town players having a new manager, Mike Newell, to impress and away day blues beckon for the Wanderers on Saturday.

I've been keen to back Taylor's men at big prices on the road, but at [2.1] the price has contracted to the point that it is time to lay.

Newell is a pretty decent young manager. He got Luton Town promoted to the Championship, where they finished 10th, their best placing since relegation from the top flight in 1992, before falling out with the board and then prompting the Stevens inquiry over corruption. Grimsby v Luton will be an interesting occasion on October 21, but before that Newell can galvanise his troops to gain something from this game.

Another thread from the midweek results confirmed Morecambe as the draw specialists. In fact the 1-1 draw specialists. Last Saturday proved the exception in the past five games, when they drew 2-2 at home to Chesterfield.

Sammy McIlroy is a street-wise soul who is giving 18-year-old Aaron Taylor a deserved chance - he notched the decisive penalty on Tuesday and has impressed for the reserves.

The loss after 17 minutes on Tuesday of Michael Twiss was unfortunate. He was often the unsung workhorse of away wins when Morecambe won promotion to the Football League 18 months ago and would have relished a game like the trip to Gillingham on Saturday.

Gillingham, at around [1.9], are another lay. That is far too short a price to have any faith in when they have won one game in four - and that against a free-falling Port Vale. Poor form has put a good man, in Mark Stimson, under pressure going into a game against a side which has got its act together after an understated start.

Talking of teams coming good, Exeter City are gradually climbing. There is no doubt they have a quality front pairing in Adam Stansfield and Richard Logan.

Nine goals for the Grecians in three games has given them a lift - even if the seven resulting points have come against some of the division's lesser lights, Notts County, Macclesfield and Gillingham.

They will find it a whole different ball game at Bury on Saturday, judging by the way Alan Knill's table toppers mesmerised Aldershot Town at the EBB Stadium last weekend.

Bury's super-fit, super-confident midfield of Stephen Dawson and Elliott Bennett in particular, with Brian Barry-Murphy and Domaine Rouse supporting, cut Aldershot to shreds for 60 minutes with slick interchanging of passing and positions. Add to that Andy Bishop and Andy Morrell up front, who out-paced a sluggish central pairing, and Bury at home to Exeter are this week's banker at [2.1].

As for Aldershot, Gary Waddock's men must gain maximum points from a trip to Macclesfield - as Exeter did 4-1 - if they are to sustain their challenge. Defensive ineptitude in the first half last weekend probably stemmed from the fact that keeper Nicky Bull was taken ill in the warm-up. He would not have stood for the types of defensive errors and wandering full-backs that led to Bury's 3-0 lead.

At least, when Aldershot clawed back to 3-3, they had taken note of Waddock's desire for them to see out a draw instead of going for victory late in the game - their downfall the previous week at Notts County. Back the Shots at [2.75] for a first away win.