English Football League / Richard Walker / 12 May 2008 /

Once Carlisle United looked enviously across the Pennines at the likes of Leeds - now Richard Walker looks for the value as they attempt to silence the Elland Road faithful for the final time this season.

We've seen the other 10 sides contest their respective first legs in this season's play-offs extravaganza - now make way for an unforgiving scrap between two sides from solid northern stock.

At Elland Road, the home side are [1.74] to back for victory, visitors Carlisle around a [6.0] chance and it's [3.75] about the draw.

I mentioned we've now seen the other five games and they've all been tight affairs; two draws, two single-goal wins with only Hull two to the good over their opponents, Watford. Significantly, there's not been more than three goals scored in any of the matches.

Naturally then, I'll start by suggesting you back Unders in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market because, allied to what's gone on before this weekend, I fancy there won't be many goals in this one either. Unders is at [1.7] while the contrary view of Overs can be backed at about [2.16].

Before you take a glance at the League One table for assistance in making your own assessment of this likely battle, don't forget Leeds - under both Dennis Wise and now Gary McAllister - actually accrued 91 points this term, just one less than champions Swansea City. That's not one of those contorted statistics to suit the situation, it's a cold, hard fact.

The '-15 points' motif has been a feature of their season and in the news far more than any other points deduction I can recall. In the club's match programme there's no page 15, the 'Real League One table' is printed without the penalty and there's a minus 15 where squad number 15 would appear on the back page.

Wise's preferred seige mentality approach worked early on - and perhaps when he took flight for Newcastle, a quieter less successful mini-spell was inevitable. The savvy McAllister got through that lull and got the Whites going again to secure a play-off spot (appeal notwithstanding) in good time for the mental preparation to start.

Carlisle, meanwhile, having sacked their manager after game one, relied on a great job from caretaker Greg Abbott before appointing the 'been there and done it' approach of John Ward, a man clearly at home on the electric beach (tanning studios for the uninitiated). Here's a man who learnt his tracksuit trade understudying Graham Taylor at Watford and, wherever he's been, there's been a trail of steady progress to reflect on.

Both Uniteds have known for some time they'd be in the promotion shake-up one way or another - but, crucially, for Carlisle it's a body-blow to have to enter this lottery since they'd been flying well clear in the top two for much of the pre-Easter campaign.

And they're devoid of joint-top goalscorer Joe Garner - ex-Leeds loanee Danny Graham is shouldering the full weight of goal-getting stress. Countering that is the news that centre-half, club captain Danny Livesey is back from a one-match ban. Although they'll miss the steady David Raven in the back-line, Livesey remain a powerful presence and a real leader for the Cumbrians.

From McAllister's camp, leading marksman Jermaine Beckford might be fit enough for a start after his ankle trouble, while his strike partner Tresor Kandol rediscovered his goalscoring touch against Gillingham last weekend. Left-back Alan Sheehan's suspended but that shouldn't prove too much of an issue for a largely settled side.

But my player tip lies with Dougie Freedman, on loan in West Yorkshire from Crystal Palace. He's scored five in nine league games and seems sure to start this one. At the end of a weekend which saw wily veterans Dean Windass and Nicky Barmby both bag a goal, take Freedman to complete an evergreen triumvirate by backing him at [6.2] to score the game's first goal or, in the more conservative To Score list, at [2.54].

In general, the game's pointers weigh more towards the hosts so Draw/Leeds - a [4.9] shot - is my Half Time/Full Time suggestion, backed up by the [3.0] priced cover of Leeds/Leeds. Two-nil to the Whites can be backed at [8.6] in the Correct Score market and that's where my minimum-stakes-advised style outlay will be headed.

Leeds have kept six clean sheets from nine and lost just once in their last 10 games while Carlisle haven't won in five games - but, just as I write this, I remember it's the play-offs again and this could all be proved irrelevant nonsense, so go with your hunch...and be decisive!

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