English Football League / Richard Walker / 11 May 2008 /

Richard Walker takes a detailed look at the League 2 play-off semi-final between Wycombe Wanderers and Stockport County. He thinks current form will count for little.

Only promoted Peterborough United won more home matches this season than this evening's home team Wycombe Wanderers - and that's just the sort of fact you'd prey on normally, but these are the play-offs and unfortunately, like local derbies, trends count for very little.

The notion that only the teams in form ever win the play-offs is a little mythical since, in point of fact, they're actually the ones people find easier to remember since it was that team making all the headlines on their run into the play-off places.

That's different to these two sides, Wycombe Wanderers and Stockport County. The hosts have been in the top seven since Boxing Day without any realistic ambition of catching the runaway top two or even making a dent on getting near the third automatic promotion spot. County, meanwhile, slowly but surely built up a head of steam - including one 10-game unbeaten run which garnered them 28 points - this inexorably making a top-seven berth their own.

I'm going to start the odds overview with a striker I've always liked. I used to watch Scott McGleish play on my occasional visits to Barnet (not my first team but I'm a bit of a fan through a relative) and, despite being in his early 30s, he's lost none of that predatory instinct. Take him to notch the game's first - and possibly only - goal of this Sunday evening slugfest. Priced at [5.5] (or [2.86] To Score at any time, if you prefer), the Londoner has bagged 26 goals this campaign, all of them in League Two. Great going.

Hatters' top scorer Liam Dickinson is the striker to oppose him with - but he's a doubt. He'll need to shake off a hamstring injury to feature in Jim Gannon's starting line-up. I reckon he'll be on the bench at the very least so the To Score option, priced around [3.25], makes more sense where he's concerned.

As for the Match Odds, the more I see of the play-offs the more I make it a layer's market. If that's not your bag, fine, but the bet for me here would be to lay County at a liability of [3.55]. The draw is [3.2] while Wycombe can be backed to win at [2.42]. I couldn't be strong enough to say Wanderers will have too much for a resolute Stockport - so take the chance to be the bookie, effectively, and you'll get two results on your side.

I'm drawn back to Wycombe's solid home form and their miserly 42 goals conceded all season (to County's 54). With 15 against, the Chairboys boast the meanest home back-line so its an Unders for me in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market - [1.68] are the odds for that with [2.44] to back the Overs.

I suppose I'm rounding on a 1-0 second-half penalty from McGleish as my idea of what might happen. That seems a bit specific I appreciate but I can definitely see a really tight, tense affair at Adams Park. None of the semi-final first legs have yet been goal fests and I'm expecting that trend to continue.

It's [8.0] to back a 1-0 home win and Draw/Wycombe weighs in at [6.2] in the Half Time/Full Time list. If I was a little braver, I'd probably avail of Under 1.5 goals in that market at [2.98] but I'm a coward at heart!

However, let's assume Dickinson doesn't at least start; that would make my bet of the match the Wycombe clean sheet. Priced up at about [2.82], of all the modest-return wagers that sits with me as the most striking option.

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