Two And A Half Goals: FA Cup special

Daily Tipping / The Inside Man / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Tony Pulis' team be the victims of an upset?

"Stoke’s defence is notoriously mean and they score less than a goal a game on their travels."

The Inside Man casts his eye over three fifth round FA Cup ties as well as one match from Spain's La Liga...

Saturday

Chelsea v Birmingham

Chelsea can't score, but Birmingham can defend. So it's easy to foresee lots of pressure here, with little end-result. Most encouraging for me, though, is that the stats appear to deceive, with both sides seeming full of goals, until that is, you look a little closer.

For example, Birmingham's away games average more than four goals each. But that includes big wins against weak opposition. It's a very different matter when Chris Hughton's team play sides as good or better than them.

Look at Birmingham's last match against each of the top four sides in the table, and you'll find all of those games went under two and a half goals. In addition, their two FA Cup games against Wolves produced just a single goal between them.

Meanwhile, Chelsea continue to misfire, with five of their last six games going under two-and-a-half goals. A 1-0 win saw them scrape past QPR in the last round, while a 2-0 loss at Everton last week confirmed they struggle against stubborn opposition - something that Birmingham
certainly are.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.36]


Norwich v Leicester

Motivation counts for a lot in the Cup. Form and league-standing are all very well, but if a manager sees the competition as a distraction, then all bets are off. In Norwich and Leicester, however, we have two teams champing at the bit for glory.

With Leicester nine points off the play-offs in the Championship, the Cup looks like the Foxes' best chance of success, and I expect them to go full tilt. Eighth in the Premier League, Norwich also look safe. So both sides have the motivation to go on the attack, while neither will want a replay that might hamper their faint hopes of achieving a play-off spot/European place in the league.

Goals should come as a matter of course. At home, Norwich games average a fraction under three goals, while their two FA Cup ties yielded eight in total. Meanwhile, both teams having scored in 10 of Leicester's last 12 league games, suggesting the goals should end up being shared around.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.87]


Sunday

Granada v Real Sociedad

Newboys Granada are fighting for their La Liga survival, and making a decent fist of it too. But the manner in which they are closing their campaign is in stark contrast to how they began. Granada started life in Spain's top-flight by trying to eke-out wins. Their season opened with several 1-0 results, as eight of their first nine matches went under two and a half goals.

Things have been very different though since Christmas. A 5-1 drubbing at Real Madrid in early January was the catalyst, and that started a run which has seen all six of Granada's games this year go over the goals mark. In their bid to survive, an all-or-nothing mentality seems to have taken over, and as a result the minnows are now eight games without a draw.

As for Real Sociedad, they have recently tapped into a rich vein of goal action that's seen 15 goals scored in their last four games. And with their games averaging close to three goals on the road anyway, they look tailor made for our betting purposes.


Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.24]


Crawley v Stoke

Returning to the importance of motivation: an upset could be on the cards in Crawley.

Stoke turn up for a match that must be as welcome as a kick in the backside for Tony Pulis's side, as they continue to chase glory in the Europa League, while at the same time trying to turn around their disappointing league campaign. With a European second leg in Valencia awaiting them just four days later, Crawley is probably not where the Potters would want to be on Sunday.

It's hard to see many goals. Stoke's defence is notoriously mean and should be rugged enough to deal with their League Two opponents. Stoke, meanwhile, score less than a goal a game on their travels, so it's hard to see them doing much damage.

Crawley nicked 1-0 wins against higher ranked teams in the last two rounds, and it's not that hard to foresee them doing it yet again, to claim what would be one of the biggest results in the club's history.


Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.89]