Daily Tipping / Four By Four / 14 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Aston Villa v Everton, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [2.56], Everton [3.2], The Draw [3.4]

What do you get when two evenly-matched low-scoring teams meet? A low-scoring encounter I hear you all say. Well, generally, yes. But season after season the Betfair layers never learn when it comes to Aston Villa v Everton, and they keep getting stung in the Goals markets when these two sides meet.

The last 10 encounters between these two clubs have witnessed a total of 36 goals scored (an average of 3.6 goals per game), the 10 meetings prior to those witnessed 28 goals scored (2.8 per game). Whatever sample you take, since the turn of the century this fixture has always produced goals. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen both teams getting on the scoresheet for example, and seven of the last nine meetings paid out on Over 3.5 Goals.

Incredibly then, you can back Over 3.5 Goals today at [4.6]. But we don't have to be that brave so instead we'll just go for Over 2.5 Goals at [2.34]. The trend will be bucked one day - probably today now that I've talked it up so much - but when you have stats in your favour like this it's foolish not to use them to your advantage.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34]

Doncaster v Cardiff, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Doncaster [4.0], Cardiff [2.12], The Draw [3.5]

No team has lost fewer away games in the Championship than Cardiff. They probably would have claimed a draw in the midweek Carling Cup semi-final at Crystal Palace but for a debatable disallowed goal, and that sense of injustice will be in the minds of Malky Mackay's side as they get back to what is their bread and butter this season: trying to get promoted. The Bluebirds were as low as 12th in mid-October but a run of eight wins in 13 games has lifted them to third, and they are unbeaten in their last seven away league outings.

Doncaster's unusual ploy of bringing in several loan and short-term signings hasn't had an immediate effect as they are still in the relegation zone, and it has given them the dubious stat of already having used 35 different players in league games this season. They have won three of their last four at home including against league leaders Southampton - but generally their record against the better teams in the division is poor: they have lost 9 of their 11 games against teams in the top half.

Andrew French's selection: Back Cardiff @ [2.12]

Colchester v Scunthorpe, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Colchester [2.14], Scunthorpe [3.6], The Draw [3.7]

Colchester are not the easiest to predict, as the festive period would testify. The 6-1 hammering at home to Stevenage was rectified with a 2-0 victory over Exeter, and most recently the 1-0 home defeat to MK Dons. The latest performance was more about containment against a top side, with manager John Ward perhaps fearful of another drubbing.

Ward should have no such worries against Scunthorpe, who remain just above the drop zone with 23 points. The Iron have been poor on their travels this season, and last week's victory over Hartlepool was their first since the beginning of October. Helped of course by a completely out of form Hartlepool side.

The Essex boys should see this as a winnable game, and are unlikely to concede possession as easily as they did against the Dons. I always prefer Col U when they are keeping the ball and building up their play, with Antony Wordsworth as one of their most dangerous offensive players.

The hosts have won five of their 12 games at the Weston Homes Community stadium this term and should make it six, although they have conceded 22 goals in the process.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Colchester @ [2.14]

Oxford v Crewe, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Oxford [1.76], Crewe [5.0], The Draw [4.1]

Chris Wilder has called on Jon-Paul Pittman to improve and on my reckoning he's already shown plenty of signs of that. Scoring against Crawley, where he had been on loan for three months but spent much of it injured, demonstrated his pace. He followed that up with a goal at Aldershot having, this time, started the game. Wilder didn't feel he worked as hard as he could have done but I think Pittman believes he is a stronger player now than when he was at Crawley the first time around so will relish the challenge of whatever his manager demands. Oxford concede very few goals of late, perhaps because of the return of Michael Duberry.

Crewe have a plethora of striking threats and this will be a real test of whether they can handle the up and coming best in Nick Powell especially. Clock the name now.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Oxford @ [1.76]

Recommended Multiple

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34] in Aston Villa v Everton; Back Cardiff @ [2.12]; Back Colchester @ [2.14]; Back Oxford @ [1.76]; The multiple pays approximately [18.6]

Comments (1)

1. flopp | 16 January 2012

   4 out of 4 wrong tips. tsk tsk

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