Scotland have been written off by almost everyone and they travel to Serbia tonight as huge outsiders, but Paul Robinson thinks that they can restore some pride in the Balkans.
Serbia are fourth in Group A, and like their opponents, they won't be qualifying for Rio 2014. Former star player, Siniša Mihajlović is the current head coach but he has hardly pulled up any trees in his time as boss. His reign began with three friendly defeats and he didn't get his first win until his sixth game, where the Serbs hammered a depleted and out of form Wales side.
Things took a turn for the worse as they were thrashed at home by Belgium and followed that up with a 1-0 defeat away at minnows Macedonia. Mihajlović's men did then win a couple of friendlies but they were against Chile and Cyprus, and they were comfortably beaten on Friday in Croatia.
The point I'm trying to make is that Serbia just aren't very good, despite having the services of Premier League stars like Branislav Ivanović and Matija Nastasić at their disposal. They lack a bit in the forward areas, which is illustrated by the fact that aside from the Welsh battering, they have failed to score in their other two home games under Mihajlović.
Scotland are bottom of Group A with two points and they could really do with finishing higher up than that so their UEFA coefficient doesn't drop for the next qualifying tournament. Gordon Strachan has replaced Craig Levein and despite edging past Estonia in his opening match in charge, they were beaten and largely outplayed by Wales on Friday.
Steven Fletcher went off injured in that game and he is likely to be replaced by Jordan Rhodes this evening. I think that could prove vital for the Scots as the Blackburn Rovers player looks like a real prospect and scores goals for fun.
Robert Snodgrass is suspended after his red card and Scotland are missing some first choice defenders but I just have a feeling that The Tartan Army will brave the snowy conditions and pick up a positive result.
To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8
This match is live on ESPN & BBC Scotland at 19:30
2013 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 84 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 0.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)