Gillingham are odds-on for their League Two clash with Northampton but with no win in five in front of their own fans, Paul Robinson thinks they have to be opposed.
We managed to turn over a third short priced favourite in a row yesterday as Dijon and Lens gave us the three goals we required with plenty of time to spare. A further winner tonight would see us break into profit for 2013 and get back on track to better 2012's figure.
Gillingham are flying high under boss, Martin Allen, who was installed during the summer. Last year's eighth placed finishers are currently second in the table, just one point off top spot with a game in hand. They've lost just five matches all season and with 24 goals conceded, they have the best defensive record in the division.
Their form at the Priestfield Stadium is a cause for concern though as despite their continued triumphs on the road, at home The Gills are five without victory, having picked up just two points from a possible 15. They have faced some tough opposition during that spell, but while defeats to Exeter and Port Vale can possibly be excused, poor results against Fleetwood, Barnet and York cannot.
Northampton are another club flying high and manager Aidy Boothroyd has them in third place, which is quite a step up from last term's 20th. The Cobblers have won five of their last half dozen and have lost just three times in their last 14 League Two fixtures.
A victory this evening would see them close the gap on Gillingham to four points but more importantly it would put daylight between them and the sides in the play-off places. Admittedly their form away from Sixfields isn't quite as stellar as it should be, but after a bit of a shaky start to the campaign, Northampton have lost only two from six on their travels and they've recently won at Accrington Stanley and Aldershot Town.
This looks like a pretty even contest on paper so with the hosts struggling for wins at home, I really don't think they should be an odds-on shot. That's why at around the 1.9520/21 mark, I have to make Gillingham my lay of the day.
Lay Gillingham v Northampton @ 1.9520/21
2013 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 28 pts
Returned: 27.93 pts
P/L - 0.07 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)