Bolton take on Birmingham at the Reebok today but with just one win in their last five there, Paul Robinson thinks they have to be opposed at odds-on.
Sometimes things go for you in betting and yesterday was certainly one of those times. Our lay of Bangor City looked like it had gone west when they led 3-0 after 78 minutes. A quarter of an hour later it was 3-3 and we had four winners from our last five selections, taking our annual profit to 12.6pts after commission.
Bolton have struggled since being relegated to the Championship and just after the midpoint of the season they find themselves down in 16th place, eight points off the play-offs but only seven points ahead of the relegation zone. Dougie Freedman is the new man in charge and while he has improved things slightly, the Trotters still aren't picking up many victories.
Since a surprise 2-1 win over Cardiff back in November, Bolton have won just two of their next 10, losing three of their last five. They've fallen to back to back defeats over the Christmas period thus far, at Peterborough and at home to Sheffield Wednesday. What must worry their fans is that those two clubs are 22nd and 21st in the table respectively and if we look slightly further back, they lost at home to the 20th placed, Ipswich Town, at the start of the month.
Birmingham are in their second season back in the Championship and after losing their manager to Norwich, Lee Clark, has been appointed. While they are currently down in 19th place, there are signs that he is slowly getting a decent side together.
The Blues have lost just one of their last half dozen, including a draw with Crystal Palace and a win over Middlesbrough, who are both pushing for automatic promotion. Away from St Andrews, Brum have lost only two of their last seven, and they won last time out at Barnsley.
At around the 1.9310/11 mark, I have to make Bolton my lay of the day.
Lay Bolton v Birmingham @ 1.9310/11
2012 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 300 pts
Returned: 312.60 pts
P/L + 12.60 pts (after commission)