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Champions League betting: Don't underestimate Fenerbahce at home

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Chelsea should progress against Fenerbahce but are unlikely to take a lead back to Stamford Bridge from the first leg, says Andrew French

In all the excitement of an all-English quarter-final, and Manchester United's pairing again with Roma, there has been a tendency to overlook Chelsea's tie with Fenerbahce - and even assume the Blues' progression can be taken for granted.

That over-confidence is perhaps understandable. Even allowing for the progression of Turkish football on a national and club level in recent years, many football fans in this country will still recall England twice beating Turkey 8-0 in the 1980s and assume there is still a similar gulf in class between the two nations.

As well as that, you have a Chelsea team crammed with some of the best talent from around the globe paired with a side which, although top of the Turkish League, still manages to find a place in its starting line-up for former Bury, Brighton and Sheffield United midfielder Colin Kazim-Richards.

At first sight, you can understand why there will be plenty of people queuing up to back Chelsea at [2.16].

I certainly think they will progress to the semi-finals, but I believe it will be down to a second-leg success. I fancy this first game in the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium to be a draw - an outcome that can be backed at [3.2].

If you want an indication of what Fenerbahce can achieve, then their 1-0 success over Serie A leaders Inter in the group stage is exactly that. They also showed plenty of character and resolve against Seville in the last round.

Look through their squad and you find a strong South American influence. Left-footed attacking midfielder Alex has more than 40 caps for Brazil, and he is joined by Chilean Maldonado and giant Uruguyan centre-half Lugano.

Then there is the great left-back Roberto Carlos - and they are all coached by the legendary Zico, who put an indifferent spell as Japan coach behind him to mould his current Turkish charges into a side has now reached the last eight of European's premier club competition.

Fenerbahce will see this home leg as key to their progression and therefore it's unlikely they are going to sit back and play it tight, risking Chelsea sneaking a victory. Indeed, the Turks have scored in every home game so far in this season's Champions League.

With Chelsea equally keen to secure an away goal or two, I'm looking at backing 1-1 and 2-2 at [7.6] and [22] respectively.

In line with the above, covering Chelsea/Draw (at [19]) and Fenerbahce/Draw (at [19]) might be wise.

Avram Grant has probably surprised a few people with the results he has achieved since taking over from Jose Mourinho. Of course, Chelsea detractors will suggest that anyone with half an ounce of football coaching ability ought to be able to win games with the squad at Stamford Bridge. Yet to have worked Chelsea back into contention for the Premiership and still be in the European mix is no mean feat when you consider how vaunted Grant's predecessor was.

He may not be as charismatic or easy on the eye as the 'Special One', but if Grant ends the season with either of the two trophies he still has an interest in, then removing him will be very difficult.

As I say, I think he will emerge successful over the two legs from this game - and if Chelsea do manage to win in Turkey, then the [1.24] available currently on them to qualify is not going to be around long. Therefore, a dabble at that price now might look very clever.