Carling Cup / Andrew Atherley / 24 February 2010 /

Andrew Atherley uses the stats to tell us why the short odds on United to win the match in 90 minutes and lift the Cup are justified.

Here's the bad news for Aston Villa - the notion that England's big four clubs don't care too much about winning the Carling Cup certainly does not hold true when it comes to the final.

Villa go to Wembley on Sunday aiming to repeat their 1994 final victory over Manchester United and they are [2.98] to lift the trophy and firm outsiders to win in 90 minutes at [4.7]. Villa will have their backers, having taken four points off United in their two league fixtures this season, but the evidence of previous finals indicates that the best team usually comes out on top, especially when a big-four club is involved.

Since Villa turned over United 3-1 in 1994, 10 of the 15 finals (67%) have gone to the team that finished higher in the league standings that season. Three of the finals won by lower-placed teams did not amount to great upsets, as the opposing sides in those cases were closely matched mid-table outfits, and the success rate for the higher-placed team rises to 75% when the eventual gap in the standings is two places or more, as it is likely to be between United and Villa this season.

Most tellingly, big-four clubs have a high success rate when faced by a team from outside the elite group. Tottenham's extra-time victory over Chelsea in 2008 is the only time in six finals since 1994 that a big-four team has been overturned in that scenario, with United coming out on top in both finals when they have faced a non-big-four team - 4-0 against Wigan in 2006 and on penalties (after a goalless draw) against Tottenham last year.

While [1.49] for United to lift the trophy looks short, the overall winning figures for higher-placed teams indicate those odds are spot on and it is possible to argue, on the basis of the better figures for big-four teams, that United are a value bet.

The temptation, then, is to back United at [1.88] to win in 90 minutes, but even with the stats in their favour this has the makings of a close match (the two league meetings this season finished 1-1 at Villa and 1-0 at Old Trafford) and a better option is under 2.5 goals at [1.85].

Since 1994, there has been a near-even split of Carling Cup finals with over/under 2.5 goals, but the balance is tilted firmly towards unders when a big-four club is involved - under 2.5 goals has occurred in six out of nine in that scenario.

If Sunderland's home match against Fulham on Sunday comes down to a second-half shootout, the stats say there can be only one winner.

Fulham have earned plenty of plaudits this season for their home form and their Europa League exploits, but one thing Roy Hodgson has not been able to do is improve their second-half performances.

Last season Fulham were near-perfect when securing a half-time lead, winning 10 out of 12 from that position, but they won only three out of 21 even from a position of half-time parity.

That made them emphatically a team to lay when drawing at half-time and this season they haven't been much better, scoring only two of their 10 wins from a half-time draw position (both at home).

Sunderland, meanwhile, have been slower starters, which perhaps has played a part in their deteriorating form, but have done well in the second half at home after going in level at half-time. From that position, they have won three out of four (with one draw) - a win rate bettered or matched only by Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.

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