Total Goals Guys / Total Goals Guys / 12 March 2008 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet

The Total Goals Guys' followers will have noticed that last week's column went AWOl - this is what hapened...

There are fewer games to choose from this week with both Manchester United and Chelsea facing FA Cup ties whilst both Rangers and Celtic are in Scottish Cup action.
However there's still plenty of value to be had with a punt on our selected teams in their respective matches Total Goals Markets and we visit Germany for the first time in a while with a back of 2 goals or more in Bayern's home tie with 5th place Karlsruhe.

Since the January break Karlsruhe have been involved in some high scoring matches, with 4 goals being scored in each of their 4 games but any back of 3 goals or more generally relies on both sides scoring. We simply can't trust the visitors here who despite the recent form have found the net just 12 times in 11 away matches this term. They also face a defence who have conceded just 4 times in 10 home games so when you consider Bayern themselves have only scored on average 1.9 goals per home game this season then [1.71] for 3 or more is rather skinny. The match odds suggest the hosts should win comfortably but the safe bet here is 2 goals or more at [1.25].

There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for Kevin Keegan's Newcastle right now and the misery looks set to continue in a goal laden defeat at Anfield. In the 6 EPL games since Keegan took over the visitors have lost 4, drew 2, scoring 3 whilst conceding 14 and it looks unlikely that elusive first win will come on Saturday as, in contrast to The Geordies, Liverpool look to be gathering a bit of momentum in the race for fourth spot. The Kop has seen on average 3 goals per game this season, the same average as all of Newcastle's away ties this term so when you consider the current state of the visitors in terms of organisations and morale anything above [1.8] for 3 goals or more looks a decent back.

A victory at home to 5th placed Espanyol on Saturday night could see Real Madrid open up a temporary 8 point lead over Barcelona. The hosts went down 1-0 to local rivals Getafe in their last home fixture and it seen the end of a quite magnificent 100% record. It was the league leader's third defeat in 4 matches at the time and after last weekends 3-2 win at Recreativo they will be keen to restore that winning habit. Both sides, despite being unpredictable in terms of winning or losing, have been fairly predictable in terms of goals. Real's home fixtures and Espanyol's away ties have both been yielding a total goals per game average of over 3 per game both in the last 4 games and all season long. For this, and the fact Ruud van Nistelrooy should be back for the hosts, we are happy to go with 3 goals or more at [1.82].

Laying 4 goals or more has proved successful for us on the last two occasions we have opted for it and we will have another go in Barcelona's home tie with Villarreal on Sunday night. It's 2nd v 3rd at the Camp Nou and with only 7 points separating the sides it's almost certain to be a cagey affair. Only 6 points lie between the visitors and 6th place Racing Santander so any points that the yellow submarines can pick up here could go a long way to clinching a Champions League place for next year. The sides shared only a single goal in 180 minutes of their recent Copa del Rey quarter-final clashes and a similar contest could be on the cards. [2.97] is the lay price and we are happy to take on the backers with a maximum exposure of 20% to our balance.

20% of our balance (£7.26) is being staked on each of our 4 selections.

And this is how they did:

The recent upturn in our fortunes continued at the weekend with four correct selections out of four and a 47% increase in the betting bank seen it rise to £53.51.

We doubted whether Karlsruhe had it in them to score at the Allianz Arena and that proved to be the case. With this in our thoughts we opted for 2 or more at [1.25] and it's just as well because a duo is all that the home side could muster. Luca Toni opened the scoring 4 minutes before the interval and Frank Ribery sealed a 2-0 victory with twenty-five minutes to play.

There was a bigger priced [1.8] on offer for 3 goals or more at Anfield on Saturday for Newcastle United's visit. All the stats pointed in its favour and the hosts duly delivered all on their own. Two minutes before the interval Pennant was credited with the kind of goal that teams only concede when there luck really is down and out and Torres rubbed salt in the wounds with a cheekily taken 2nd on the stroke of half-time. Upon 6 minutes of the re-start Torres turned provider for Steven Gerrard and 3 goal layers will be kicking themselves at this one surely!

The Santiago Bernabeau threw up a few goals on Saturday night where Real Madrid had to come from behind to topple Espanyol by 2 goals to one. Valdo was left unmarked at the back post for a free header on the half hour mark and it was left to Higuan to save the hosts' first half blushes, bundling one in it at the back post from close range, 2 minutes from the break. In the 2nd half the match was poised at 1-1 and heading for the last 15 minutes when Raul suddenly got goal side of his man at a through-ball. The centre back pulled his jersey and forward hit the deck, forcing the ref to point to the spot - it looked soft but the replay showed a clear tug of the jersey and the forward converted the spot kick. Both sides stuck to the form of each of their respective last 4 games in providing 3 goals or more and we were happy to oblige with a successful back at [1.82].

Things got more nervy with each passing game at the weekend and our lay of 4 goals or more at the Camp Nou on Sunday nearly fell on it face in the closing stages. [2.97] was the price here and we were happy to take that on given how close recent encounters had been. It was a bit worrying then when in this case Villarreal took the lead through a Senna penalty on 32'. This would have been a good start if you were a 3 goal backer as at this stage Barca were heading for an 8 point deficit in the lead and would surely be going for it in the second half and thus leaving gaps at the back. An equaliser came through Xavi on 67' and it was a fascinating finish to the game as neither side settled for a draw. It was the visitors who went in front again through Tomasson on 81' and with Barca pushing for an equaliser, we had to rely on a poor offside decision that prevented the yellow submarines taking home a 3-1 win.

That kind of sums up the fine line between winning and losing and sometimes luck can be very important. It was surely a factor in us yielding 47% this weekend as had the third Villarreal goal have rightly stood our profit margin would have fell below the 20% mark. All profit is welcomed however and we feel that the recent alterations to our strategy are more of a factor, in terms of our current balance, than luck, but it certainly helps sometimes!

Tags: football betting, Premiership goals, Total Goals Guys