Group E - Sweden set to surprise Holland

Holland made it to the World Cup in the most dominant fashion imaginable and triumphed in 14 successive competitive internationals before their extra-time loss to Spain in the final, however there is an argument for laying them at [1.57] to top their Euro 2012 qualifying group.

The [1.34] favourites won't be particularly daunted by the prospect of facing Sweden ([3.85]), Finland ([16.5]), Hungary ([16.5]), Moldova ([26.0]) and San Marino ([26.0]), but they should be concerned by the fact that they haven't progressed to the Euro finals as group winners since 1992.

They've never failed to qualify in that time, earning automatic passage as hosts in 2000 and settling for second place behind Czech Republic (1996 and 2004) and Romania (2008). As hangovers after impressive World Cup campaigns are fairly common (see Italy in Euro 1996 qualifying, Croatia in 2000, Turkey in 2004 and France in 2008 for further proof), another play-off appearance is possible.

Sweden look best placed to take advantage if Holland underperform again. Lars Lagerback's initially successful spell in charge ended last year and their first few results under new coach Erik Hamren - assisted by one-time Aston Villa flop Marcus Allback - have been encouraging.

The Scandinavians have won four on the spin, keeping clean sheets to nick 1-0 wins away to Wales and Belarus and scoring for fun at home to beat Bosnia 4-2 and Scotland 3-0, in a match that also marked Zlatan Ibrahimovic's return to the squad after flirting with international retirement.

Hungary rivalled Sweden in World Cup qualifying but haven't tasted victory since last October, while Finland - led by Stuart Baxter - have never reached a major tournament and rely on aging players such as centurions Sami Hyypia (36), Jari Litmanen (39) and Craig Bellamy's friend Jonatan Johansson (35). Moldova and San Marino will surely just make up the numbers.

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Published: 2 Sep 2010