England U21s to grind out Romania draw
Chris Smalling's 83rd-minute winner wrecked the under 2.5 goals call, however our argument that Romania Under-21s would prove far more challenging opponents for England's youngsters than the market indicated proved accurate - and the task will be even harder this afternoon in Botosani.
The Young Lions have the advantage after a 2-1 victory at Carrow Road on Friday but there are plenty of reasons for Romania to feel confident, the main ones being that they have an away goal and that all five of their home group games were won by margins that would see them through this qualification play-off.
The betting doesn't really reflect the fragile position that Stuart Pearce's side find themselves in - they're [2.5] to triumph in the second leg, while the hosts are ranked [3.15] outsiders, despite conceding only one goal at home so far.
That said, the visitors head into the decider in the ascendancy and last lost an away qualifier over seven years ago. After showing their ability to deliver under pressure by defeating Portugal and Lithuania in their critical final group matches, we fancy them to do just enough once again.
The draw can be backed at tasty odds of [3.5] and - despite Friday's result - under 2.5 goals still appeals as the more likely outcome at [1.92]. Those plotting a score punt should consider betting on 1-1 at [7.2], while if you expect a nervy 90 minutes for Pearce and co, it's [16.5] that Romania lead at half-time and it finishes level.
Romania Under-21s v England Under-21s
Kick-off: 12.30pm
Live on ESPN
Will England Under-21s make it to next summer's finals? Have your say below...
Published: 12 Oct 2010
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