Betfair Official Blog

Non Farm Payroll Day - Farmers not required

Daily View - 4th April

Non Farm payroll day is once more upon us which tends to equal an incredibly dull morning followed by the very embodiment of a headless chicken this afternoon. Depending on which recent employment number you focus on, the chances are for either a dramatically better or dramatically worse number than the forecast drop of 50K, but even the response to either number will be difficult to gauge.

If the figure comes in substantially worse, the market may take this as an indication that the Fed will be cutting rates even quicker than in the past few months, which may well leave us in the situation of a poor number causing a rally and vice versa.

The Federal Reserve still seems to be to some extent in the pocket of Wall Street, as virtually every move is designed to bolster equity prices and to keep the 'dream' alive. Bear moves are a feature of stock markets and have been since their inception, but the US almost seems to think that falling prices are somehow unpatriotic.

The current regime is possibly spending tomorrow's stability in trying to prop up yesterday's mistakes. Whilst failures in major financial institutions are, of course, not to be bourne lightly, the prospect of the opposite where the US Treasury stands solidly behind every institution is not what is traditionally meant by 'unfettered' capitalism.

The FTSE is opening slightly to the good as we look for a second leg to the bear squeeze of the last few days. As mentioned in a previous comment, we really need to get above 6100 and stay there for some indication that the current negative sentiment might have run its course. Until then we are still in 'bear mode', but at the moment in a period of light relief.

Commodities rushed around but in the end closed pretty much unchanged as traders try to estimate whether we are up here for the long haul or whether the great bull move of 2007/2008 has run its course.