Betfair Official Blog

ECB make big decision..nothing to do with replacing Vaughan

Daily View...8th May

Well it's BOE and ECB rate day today and much of the betting is focussed on the possibility of cuts on both sides of the channel. For today, dealers will take their lead from the rate decisions due at 12.00(BOE) and 12.45(ECB). Which should make for a peaceful morning.

Whilst the temperature appears to have gone up a bit in recent days, with big rallies in the FTSE, it is really rather early to be calling for an end to the fears over growth, and both the MPC and the ECB will be sorely tempted to react to the increased prospects for a slowdown, and in the process, damn the inflation bogeyman.

Presumably the central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don't, but the weight of probability has fallen decisively (in recent days) that both will cut by 0.25%. In the current rather fevered situation, it must be correct to take a more pragmatic approach than the rather blinkered 'inflation watch' stance.

Indices are a tad weaker after the US indulged in one of its late night sell-offs with the S&P giving up on the 1400 level for now. The FTSE is called to come in 30 lower at around 6230 but the bulls still seem to hold the upper hand and shorts are vulnerable to spikes higher.

Gold continues to struggle to regain some momentum and the major support between 845 and 850 may exert a fierce pull for dealers looking for weak long positions to attack. This morning, the price is at $866.0-$866.5 having failed to break back above the 882 resistance earlier this week.