- Betting.Betfair Home
- Financials
- Cricket
- European & International Football
- Golf
- Greyhounds
- Horse Racing
- Other sports
- Paul Nicholls
- Rugby
- Tennis
- The Betfair Debate
- UK & Ireland Football
- US Sports
Sport News 24/7Currency markets still in focus
Daily Financial Analysis 
/ Simon Denham / 30 January 2009 / Leave a comment
Daily Comment Friday 30th January
Dealers continue to oppose the market moves and this has stood them in very good stead for the last few weeks.
On this basis we are seeing solid buying this morning after the falls of yesterday and it would be a braver man than me to state that they were wrong. As mentioned several times there seems little appetite for heavy buying above 4300 but conversely nobody wants to offload below 4000. At the moment this is making for constrained trading within the aforementioned range.
The market is unlikely to be exactly exciting this morning as there are virtually no corporate announcements and the treasury data releases confined to money supply numbers. It will be no surprise if these are not exactly stellar. This afternoon sees the Michigan confidence figure and again whatever the number will probably not galvanise interest. The FTSE looks like opening around 4170 off about 20 but the price is slowly advancing as more buyers emerge.
Currency markets continue to be the focal point of interest with the battle for the Cable rate to get above 1.4350 failing once again giving the bears the opportunity, overnight, to sell us off down to the current 1.4230-1.4233. While we are struggling to make headway to the upside the same could be said to the down with 1.4190 and 1.4100 looking like support (at least in the short term). Yesterday's comments from various interested parties in Davos concerning the long term validity of the Euro seem to have given sellers the opportunity to push the EUR/USD cross a little lower but in all honesty I am left with the opinion that this is pretty much pie in the sky. In the end the politicians will decide on the EU project, not the bankers, and it will be a cold day in hell before they admit to failure. Not only that but they all want the safety net of a seat on the European Assembly when they lose a general election (or a nice little commissioner role).
Cynicism where politicians are involved is always the safest route.
The pound may be some 8 cents off the lows of a week ago but the Euro is struggling to hold above major 'closing' support at 1.2875. A break below this may well give the bears a run at the lows of October down at 1.2330. On the other hand (of course) continued failure to get lower in the EUR/USD cross is building support and if we stay above the 1.2875 support for a bit longer this may form the base for a return to the bull side. Sterling has crawled back above 1.10 vs the Euro and the recent failure to approach the lows recorded at the turn of the year will give Sterling bulls some hope of a return to respectability. The range of forecasts for the fortunes of the pound are even more extreme than is usual with some calling for 0.80 vs the euro and other saying a return to 1.30 is more likely. The old saying that if you get two economists in a room together, you end up with three opinions has never seemed more appropriate.
Gold turned around mid way through yesterday's session to turn a 14 dollar loss into a 22 dollar rally. This morning is seeing a bit of profit taking and we have fallen from the close at 910 to the current 904. Yesterdays comment is even more apposite now with the need for a swift move above the 922-930 resistance to record a new high above the previous bull move.
Dealers continue to oppose the market moves and this has stood them in very good stead for the last few weeks.
On this basis we are seeing solid buying this morning after the falls of yesterday and it would be a braver man than me to state that they were wrong. As mentioned several times there seems little appetite for heavy buying above 4300 but conversely nobody wants to offload below 4000. At the moment this is making for constrained trading within the aforementioned range.
The market is unlikely to be exactly exciting this morning as there are virtually no corporate announcements and the treasury data releases confined to money supply numbers. It will be no surprise if these are not exactly stellar. This afternoon sees the Michigan confidence figure and again whatever the number will probably not galvanise interest. The FTSE looks like opening around 4170 off about 20 but the price is slowly advancing as more buyers emerge.
Currency markets continue to be the focal point of interest with the battle for the Cable rate to get above 1.4350 failing once again giving the bears the opportunity, overnight, to sell us off down to the current 1.4230-1.4233. While we are struggling to make headway to the upside the same could be said to the down with 1.4190 and 1.4100 looking like support (at least in the short term). Yesterday's comments from various interested parties in Davos concerning the long term validity of the Euro seem to have given sellers the opportunity to push the EUR/USD cross a little lower but in all honesty I am left with the opinion that this is pretty much pie in the sky. In the end the politicians will decide on the EU project, not the bankers, and it will be a cold day in hell before they admit to failure. Not only that but they all want the safety net of a seat on the European Assembly when they lose a general election (or a nice little commissioner role).
Cynicism where politicians are involved is always the safest route.
The pound may be some 8 cents off the lows of a week ago but the Euro is struggling to hold above major 'closing' support at 1.2875. A break below this may well give the bears a run at the lows of October down at 1.2330. On the other hand (of course) continued failure to get lower in the EUR/USD cross is building support and if we stay above the 1.2875 support for a bit longer this may form the base for a return to the bull side. Sterling has crawled back above 1.10 vs the Euro and the recent failure to approach the lows recorded at the turn of the year will give Sterling bulls some hope of a return to respectability. The range of forecasts for the fortunes of the pound are even more extreme than is usual with some calling for 0.80 vs the euro and other saying a return to 1.30 is more likely. The old saying that if you get two economists in a room together, you end up with three opinions has never seemed more appropriate.
Gold turned around mid way through yesterday's session to turn a 14 dollar loss into a 22 dollar rally. This morning is seeing a bit of profit taking and we have fallen from the close at 910 to the current 904. Yesterdays comment is even more apposite now with the need for a swift move above the 922-930 resistance to record a new high above the previous bull move.
