04 Trading In-Play / Betfair Education / 29 January 2008 / Leave a comment

If only it was so easy - not every game will go exactly as you plan. Watch a few games and make some notes, rather than investing cash. If you have any statistics to help you out (number of draws on a certain cricket pitch, most popular time for goals to be scored in soccer etc), all the better.

Go into the match with a strategy. Do you think one team will win? How confident are you? Do you wish to ride them all the way, hedge for an even profit all-round, or somewhere in-between? Are you prepared to risk a little bit for a chance of a big payoff?After 35 minutes, lay the draw a

A popular trading system is backing the draw first in football matches that you expect to be rather dull and lifeless, particularly in the first half. The average draw price of a relatively even English Premiership match is 3.4. If the game is still scoreless at half-time, that price will drop to 2.6-2.7. But beware the late goal, stats show that the last 15 minutes of each half are the highest scoring segments of the match, even after you allow for the addition of injury-time.

Scratch it out first on a piece of paper: In the example below red shows liability and green current positive position.

• Back the draw at 3.4, for £50
o Team A =-£50
o Draw =+£120
o Team B = -£50

• After 35 minutes, lay the draw at 2.80 for £30
o Team A = -£20
o Draw = +£66
o Team B = -£20

(nb - effective position is now £20 on the Draw at 4.3, better odds than were ever available)

• At half-time, if the score is still 0-0, lay the draw again, 2.66 for £30
o Team A = +£10
o Draw = +£16.20
o Team B = +£10

This is now a GREEN BOOK, whichever result occurs you win!

• Team A scores after 60 minutes, the prices are now: Team A 1.50, Draw 3.6, Team B 17.0. Lay Team A for £20
o Team A = £0
o Draw = +£36.20
o Team B = +£30

In this position, you don't mind if the home team hangs on, but you'd prefer an equaliser from the visitors. Team A continue to shorten as the clock ticks, but Team B are pushing everyone forward...

75mins - Team A 1.28, Draw 5.0, Team B 30.0

Do you ride this out or lay the favourite again?

80mins, the visitors get desperate and bring on fresh legs. Team A 1.20, Draw 6.0, Team B 50.0

Have a liability of £10 by laying Team A for a backer's stake of £50.
• Team A = -£10
• Draw = +£86.20
• Team B = +£80

85mins, the visitors equalise! Team A 11.0, Draw 1.20, Team B 11.0. Lay the draw for £100.
• Team A = +£90
• Draw = +£66.20
• Team B = +£180

90 minutes - somebody scores, but do you really care with a book like that???

Alternatively, you might wish to lay the odds-on favourite if you don't think they will score in the first half-hour. There are many different strategies, many different variables, the only way to work out what's best for you is test them out.