04 Trading In-Play / Betfair Education / 29 January 2008 / Leave a comment

Let's look at the example of the final test between India and Australia in November 2004.

• Needing just 107 in the fourth innings to win the match, Australia traded at 1.05 when the target was set, India are matched at 20. Being only day three, the draw is out of the equation.
• Australia lost a wicket immediately (0-1) and drifted to 1.10.
• Wickets continue to tumble, and at 58-6, India became favourites at a price of 1.86.
• Another wicket, 62-7, and India are now strong favourites trading at 1.22 - their lowest price in the match.
• Mini-revival, Australia reach 77-7 and regain favouritism at 1.89.
• A wicket reverses the betting dramatically, India now 1.30 at 77-8.
• The tail wags, at 90-8, both teams are trading at evens (2.0).
• The ninth wicket fails, India back into 1.50.
• Australia all out for 93, the final price available for India was 1.30.

The following graph illustrates how the prices fluctuated in relation to how the wickets fell as outlined above.

Imagine the position you could have put yourself in if you believed Australia's record in dead rubber tests and chasing small totals was worth a risk. If this was your believe you would lay Australia at 1.05 which wouldn't exactly kill you. For a potential profit of £100 if Australia did not win the game, you risk a whole £5 - the price of a couple of pints!

Think about it - what is the downside of such a lay? The opening batsman Langer & Hayden defy the trend of the match and get to 50/0, Australia trades at 1.02 and you can't get out of it.

At virtually any point in the innings after the first over, you had a healthy position to trade from.
Would you then back Australia at 1.5 or 2.0 or higher? There are plenty of options available to you and you don't need to jump in all at once. You could bet back piece by piece - first covering the potential loss you have on Australia so you then have a 'bet to nothing', then chip away to even up your result on both sides. You can weight the position to however you want to cheer the result. That's the beauty of Betfair.