23 Tennis / Betfair Education / 30 April 2008 / Leave a comment

Some strategies to look at for various events - these were written specifically for particular Grand Slams but can be adapted to any event.

MATCH BETTING

New York is different

At this time of year, New York is hot and humid, with regular thunderstorms. Play can be delayed or interrupted constantly, allowing players to consult their coaches when they are struggling. It's also loud - planes fly directly over the stadium and American fans aren't renowned for polite applause acknowledging the play of both combatants. It's different to any other venue on the circuit - some players love it and some hate it. Players who don't have the mental stamina to focus purely on the game can fall apart from a strong position if the smallest thing goes against them. Never be afraid to lay a short-priced favourite for a trade at least - the price can't get much lower and the upside is significant.


Ignore 'soft' sets

This was mentioned for Wimbledon but is worth repeating, particularly with the steamy New York weather. In men's matches in particular, once a player is down a break, it is quite difficult to bounce back and win the set in question. When a player has already built up a handy lead, going down a break isn't the end of the world, especially over best-of-five sets. They can often go through the motions for the next few games to save their energy for the next set when the match is in the balance again. Don't over-react to a player sacrificing a battle to win the war.

Watch out for the home-town boys

A lot of American sportsmen and women simply don't play well when they need a passport, but it often turns around at home. With a local crowd behind them and their preferred hard surface underfoot, suddenly they look like completely different players - but does an aggressive style over three sets mean running out of stamina against a claycourter over five sets?

Back or lay the server?

On grass, holding serve is crucial, particularly for the men. Giving the opponent a look at a second serve will invariably mean going for the jugular - they may not get another chance for several games.

The market will realise this - when a player is about to commence a service game, more often than not, the market is already expecting that player to win the game. Thus backing them and expecting to lay off two minutes later probably gives you an upside of two to three ticks (increments in price), but a downside of ten times that if it goes the other way. That's a small upside and a big downside. So laying the player about to serve may prove more profitable. If they hold serve, then the price has only gone down a little - you can trade out for a small loss. But if the serve is broken, then you have much more profit to realise. Even being taken to 30-all will enable you to close for a profit.

Remember that a break of serve in the first game of the match is worth far less than at 4-4 which virtually hands the set to the opponent.

Beware the player who can't miss a shot

When a player jumps out of the blocks well and keeps hitting winner after winner, what are the chances of that continuing? If the player isn't one of the top seeds, then there's probably a reason for that - lack of consistency. Sooner or later, that two inches inside the line will become two inches out if the opponent can hang on for long enough. In a close match according to the betting, you'll regularly see one player hit the front, take the first set and then relax. First service game of the next set, they get broken and it's back to square one.

One-set leads get turned over regularly particularly when the favourite goes behind. Remember to back high and lay low. If you're keen to back players when they are a set up, remember that when backing at a selection at 1.25 (1/4), you need four out of five bets to win just to break even. When laying at 1.25, any better than one selection losing puts you in profit.

OUTRIGHT

Watch out for poor value during matches

The winner markets remain open throughout the tournament, meaning prices will move constantly. When key players are on court, many punters take their offers down so that they don't get matched when the game is going the wrong way. You can take advantage of this by matching punters who over-react during a match. Example - a player who starts the match at 20 in the outright market will probably shorten into 16 by winning the match. But in the absence of many offers in the market, some punters will take whatever they see on screen. Think about what price you'd expect to see after the match - lay at several notches shorter (say 11 from the example above), or try to back a bit higher (25 in the example), to obtain value you could trade out later when the market stabilises again overnight.