Trading
08 Cricket 
/ Betfair Education / 28 April 2008 / Leave a comment
Where do you start when analysing a match? Do your research and take an opinion. Is one side vastly superior to the other? Is there rain on the horizon, is there any play likely to be lost as a result? Remember that with modern attacking game plans, pitch management and starting early/finishing late to make up for lost time, losing one session of play early in a Test match should hardly make a difference to the market.
The toss is a key factor - the captain who wins the toss can be handed a big advantage, but they don't always make the right decision. Nasser Hussain made a colossal blunder in sending Australia into bat in the first Test of the 2002/3 Ashes series - the home side made 384-2 on the first day and never looked back. The side who wins the toss will usually shorten in price immediately after, but the effect of winning it varies between games - occasionally you will hear a captain say "I'm not sure what I would have done today, I'm glad I lost it."
If trading a cricket match, you are not focusing on the result but on putting yourself in a profitable position. What must happen for the value of your bet to be improved?
By backing the team batting first, you want them to get away to a safe start. Where do expect them to be at lunch, tea or stumps on day one? Any better than 80/2 at lunch on day one will probably shorten their price, more wickets will see the bowling side shorten in price while a wicket-free session with or without runs is likely to see the draw become more popular.
If you opt for the draw, what are you expecting to happen? Wickets are your main enemy, a slow pitch is helpful, but too few runs and a deficit can be turned over quickly.
Pitches and weather conditions vary, but the first session of a Test is when you would expect the most life to be in a pitch - fast bowlers making use of bouncy, grassy conditions before it starts to dry in the sun. As the pitch dries up and gets torn up by players' spikes, the latter two days tend to offer plenty for the spinners.
