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Look on both sides for value

04 Head-to-Head markets RSS / Betfair Education / 19 March 2008 / Leave a comment

First thing you need to understand is how they markets operate - what makes them different from markets with many more options? Head-to-head markets can also be called binary markets, meaning they could just as easily be listed as 'Will Player X win? Yes/No'. So in theory, the back price of one selection should equate to the same price laying the opponent.

Take a look at this racing match bet example:

racingmatchbet.PNG

Let's say you fancy Precocious Leader to win this matchup. Should you take the 1.8 to back or lay the other horse at 2.2?

At least 80% of punters will go for backing at 1.8. And they'd be WRONG.

How does that work? In a two-horse race, backing one runner effectively offers your layer (or bookie) the reverse price on the other runner. Think of it in fractions. If you have a standard bet with a mate on a football match, you usually will bet at even money or 1/1 - £5 of yours against £5 of his. But we all know not all contests are even. If you want to bet your selection at 4/5 (1.80), then the person laying the bet is receiving odds of 5/4 (2.25) on your selection NOT winning. This could either be 5/4 on the other player in a tennis match, the whole field in a horse race, or the other team and the draw in a soccer match.

Back to our example:

Put £20 on at the 1.8 - risk £20 for a profit of £16.

Now compare to laying:

To risk £20 laying at 2.2, click on the Liability link (click on the word for a box to pop-up, not just the dot), type in 20 and your potential profit (the stake offered) would be £16.66.

More profit comes in this case from laying because it means you are indirectly getting a better price to back.

The easiest way to look at it is to think in fractions.

Backing at 1.8 = backing at 4/5.

Laying at 2.2 = laying at 6/5 = backing at 5/6, or 1.83.... a better price than available in the back column.

Think in fractions, and flip it over to turn the lay price into a back price. This is a concept we call Reciprocal Pricing. If you are backing Heads at evens, then by default, you are laying Tails at evens. If you are backing Kauto Star at 2.5 (6/4), by default, you are laying every other horse in the race (The Field) at 4/6 or 1.67. It's just 'flip the fraction'.

Confused? Use the 'What If' function to test it out for yourself. No need to place any bets, just enter a price and stake and the site will do all the calculations for you.

The difference is only small (0.033) for Precocious Leader, but take a look at Ardent Stayer using the same theory. How much better price can you get by laying the other runner?

Backing is laying and vice-versa. Teach yourself to look at the other side for options (the vast majority of punters don't!) and you'll stand to profit more.


Tags: betfair, education, laying, reciprocal pricing

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