06 What is value? / Betfair Education / 29 January 2008 / Leave a comment

The price at which you place a bet is entirely up to the individual, some people would rather get the occasional selection right for a big collect, others want to win nearly every time.

The trick is betting at a better price than you think your selection should be. If after all your research you decide that a certain selection has a 50% chance of success the price in a 100% book should be 2.0 (Evs). If the price available is greater that 2.0 this represents value likewise if you can at a lower price that 2.0 this too is value. To win in the long run all bets placed should represent VALUE.

Many punters talk about betting overs (overlay bets) or laying the unders (selection priced at under the price they believe it should be). Bear this in mind - every time you back what you think is a 2/1 shot (3.0) at even money (2.0), you have to improve your win ratio by 16.7%.

If you're after a 50% winning strike rate on selections, your average price needs to be even money (2.0) to break even. However if you are returning an average price of 5/4 (2.25), you are getting a 5.5% advantage on winners needed (now need four out of nine rather than five of ten to break square) - you're actually making 25% more money.

To quote leading Australian racing analyst Steve Moran - "Value - you can't eat it, but you must have it in order to survive."