Backing Short Prices
06 What is value? 
/ Betfair Education / 29 January 2008 / 2 Comments
Too often we hear racing media pundits use the phrase 'Any price a winner'. This guarantees only one thing... that the media pundit is doing the job because he needs a job - he does not win on the punt.
Let's get one thing clear - price is important, just how important you make it depends on your style of betting.
Look at it this way - if the average price of your bets is 2.0 (evens), then you need to make 50% of your bets winners just to break even. So 51 winners out of 100 makes you a slight profit, 49 winners a slight loss.
Even money is easy to work out - how about the leviathan punters you hear about that lump on the heavy favourites? For every 1.5 shot you back (1/2), you need to get two out of every three correct JUST to break even. A little shorter? At 1.33 (1/3), you need three of every four to come home to break even.
If those numbers are starting to look depressing, just imagine how many of those 1.01s need to succeed for you to profit.... Just one shock result in 101 events means you can do no better than break even.
p banks | 20 June 2008
Your mention of 1.01 bets prompts me to ask a question that has been puzzling me.
I notice that on popular in-play markets, there is a lot of money sitting at 1.01 waiting to be matched.
My best guess is that this money is put on by punters hoping to get a small but reliable gain when the odds on a winning team go very low towards the end of a match.
But how is it done? Trying to place a bet at 1.01 via the website always gives the best odds available at the time. Does betting software allow you to avoid this 'helpful' feature?
sean | 21 June 2008
P Banks: I think you may be confused between backing and laying. The 'money' sitting there has been layed at 1.01, thus will not be matched until someone wishes to back at 1.01 - i.e. when the probability of winning is very high (presumably higher than 99%). The money is not be matched at higher odds because, in the case of a lay, better odds are lower odds and 1.01 is the lowest possible (and therefore the best to lay at) on Betfair.