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Test Cricket Betting: History shows that the Windies can come back against Sri Lanka

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Can the West Indies hit back to level the series or does history mean nothing for their current crop of players? Ed Hawkins investigates...

The Betfair market does not give West Indies much hope of salvaging a draw in their two-Test series against Sri Lanka when the final match begins in Port of Spain on Thursday. And why should it? After all, the hosts have not managed to avoid defeat in a series since their 2005 visit to Pakistan.

The West Indies began the rubbers against Sri Lanka with hopes of putting their dismal recent record behind them, but the comprehensive 121-run loss in Guyana on what visiting wicketkeeper Kumar Sangakkara called, "the flattest of flat pitches" was a damaging blow to expectancy levels of a turnaround in the Caribbean. They really should have been able to manage a draw.

With that performance at the forefront of the mind and so many other disappointing ones lurking towards the back, it would take a brave man to back West Indies at [4.3] especially considering they have lost four in a row in Trinidad. Sri Lanka are [2.44] and the draw is [2.92].

So brave certainly, but there is evidence to suggest it would not be foolish, although before you start emptying your bank account one should bear in mind that West Indies will need to find inspiration similar to the feel good factor they produced against South Africa recently. Have a look at the scorecard for a reminder.

West Indies' history is littered with examples of the Calypso kings coming back in series in which they have tasted defeat in the first Test. The most recent was ten years ago against Australia. They were absolutely thrashed by 312 runs in Trinidad but hit back to draw the series at 2-2. And although none of the players remain from that match, a character of a cricket nation survives longer than individuals.

Since 1981, there have been five more examples of West Indies losing the first game of a series but recovering to avoid defeat: against India in Bombay in 1994 they were beaten by 94 runs but drew the three-Test series 1-1; 155 runs was the margin of loss in game one against England in 1991 only for them to level for 2-2; in 1988 in Guyana Pakistan beat West Indies by nine wickets and drew the series 1-1; the same team let it slip against the Windies in Faisalabad after a 186-run romp; and finally Australia slipped up after winning by 58 runs in Melbourne to draw 1-1.
It is interesting to note that all of those losses in first Tests, bar that Melbourne reverse, were heavy just as the defeat to Mahela Jayawardene's troops was in Georgetown.

There is also some hope for West Indies in the shape of Sri Lanka's record after taking a lead in a series. Amazingly, they have failed to hold on three times since 2000, which suggests they are far from home and hosed this time.

Against Pakistan only four years ago Sri Lanka went one up after handing out a thrashing in Faisalabad by 201 runs. But they lost by six wickets in Karachi to end the contest on a disappointing note.

Three years previously England famously came from behind to win in Sri Lanka by a 2-1 scoreline, that after an innings and 28-run defeat in the first rubber. South Africa were the third team to make Sri Lanka pay for complacency in 2000. Again Sri Lanka won by an innings first up but couldn't hold on for victory in the three-Test series, drawing 1-1.

West Indies' latest reason for optimism is that since 2002, they have managed to avoid series defeats only twice against the established Test nations. As already mentioned, one of those was against Pakistan but the other (a win) came versus Sri Lanka in 2003 in the Caribbean. Of the current squad, Chris Gayle, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Marlon Samuels, Fidel Edwards and Jerome Taylor were present. Importantly, there were five Sri Lankans who were there, too.

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