England v New Zealand First Test Betting Preview: Lord's favours big runs ... and the draw

The Hawkeye view / Ed Hawkins / 12 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ed Hawkins gives his betting analysis ahead of Thursday's first Test

There was a time when batsmen would dread walking out to bat at Lord's - and not just because of the frosty reception they would receive from the austere egg and bacon tie brigade. The slope, the surface and the swing were enough to make them feel uncomfortable.

And it was England who's willowmen seemed to suffer more than most.

Only once in 12 innings from 1996 to 2000 did they score more than 300 in an innings. The ground's reputation as bowler-friendly was deserved. After all, who can forget all those Lord's one-day finals which would be over as a contest in the first hour because of a boomeranging ball?

Thankfully, the wicket has changed, even if the old codgers in the pavilion haven't. Lord's is now considered one of the best batting wickets in the country. Rather fittingly, its status shifted when England beat New Zealand there in the first Test in 2004.

The sides meet again at Headquarters in the first Test of the summer, which starts on Thursday. England are [1.77] for victory and the Kiwis, without Stephen Fleming and Shane Bond, are a steep [7.8]. The draw price is [3.2] but you could bet your bottom dollar that those odds will shorten dramatically at the merest hint of a partnership on the first morning.

They did exactly that four years ago when New Zealand's Mark Richardson and Nathan Astle were busy putting on more than 100 for the second wicket as the tourists posted a competitive 381 in their first innings. When England responded with 441 by the third day they looked in control but New Zealand hit back and set the hosts a challenging 282 for victory. See the scorecard here http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/statsguru/engine/match/64086.html

It looked beyond them on a pitch which traditionally deteriorated, especially when they were two down for very little. However, the pitch did not crumble or crack. The ball did not jag off the seam or keep low. It held firm. England, scarcely able to believe the ease with which they were scoring runs on a fifth-day wicket, did likewise.

Since then, punters wise to the change in track have expected runs and the wicket has not let them down. Indeed, so full of runs has it been that the last four Tests there have ended in stalemate.

The England batsmen have shone at the venue in recent years and as a result the home team's record at the ground has improved markedly. They have lost only two of their last 10 (one against the mighty Aussies) and boosted their win percentage rate over that period to 40, a three per cent rise over all matches.

Overall, England win 37 per cent of the time at the famous old ground, making it their fourth most-successful home stage. That stat may surprise some because it has wrongly been believed that England struggle at Lord's more than any other ground. But in fact England have worse win percentage rates at Trent Bridge (30) and The Oval (32), which is oddly viewed as a fortress.

Against a weak New Zealand side England should win with ease, although that much is apparent by looking at the odds. There may be more value on the runs markets.
Over the last 10 Tests, England's average first innings total is a whopping 426. You can back them at [2.02] to exceed that total again. With the ball, they concede 320 and the [1.7] that New Zealand score more than 300 could be of interest.