Good profit but not as good as it could have been

The Betfair Trader / Editor / 08 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Trader brings us up to date with his cricket trading, including a good win on South Africa's 1st Test triumph over Pakistan

Result since last update: £407.74

Hmm. A green is always better than a red. And I'm pleased to bank the profit. But this figure hides the real story of the last few days. Sure, I've won money, but I also had a substantial loss in the high hundreds and managed to toss away around 60% (£2kish) of my green in another market. I've not been trading well. And the root reason is I've probably been trying to do too much at the same time - both in terms of amounts of concurrent markets, both sports and financials, as well as getting on with my normal work at the same time.

The loss was in the Sri Lanka v England ODI. Particularly galling as my opening trade was a sizeable lay of Sri Lanka and they lost. :-( Basically I just wasn't concentrating enough on the game, instead focussing on the first test between Pakistan and South Africa, and ended up letting the market quickly run away from me before I'd really realised. Doh! Managed to sort it out a bit, and nearly even escaped with a small profit, but as the match reached the latter stages I decided not to risk any more liability and accept the loss. Wrong decision financially on the day but probably the right one in the long term.

My profit came from the test match. Made a small four figure sum. As mentioned I'd started by laying the draw and had subsequently also backed the results. Went into the 5th day today with healthy looking greens on the results but started getting the draw back onside shortly before lunch. Part of the problem was the market wasn't that liquid. I needed to cover several thousand red on the draw but was unable to back it for amounts I needed. So I ended up having to lay South Africa and give away good value. Bit of dumb position to get into but I just had them down as winners. Unfortunately as the market started shifting I could see the profit I'd built up over 4 days disappearing with the very real possibility of a large all round red looming.

So, I bit the bullet, dumped a couple of grand of South African green and swore a lot. :-) Not quite as much as after lunch though when the Pakistan wickets I'd been expecting started to tumble. Meaning the Saffer's price plunged and I'd lost most that lovely green forever. :-( Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing. At the time I felt it right to do what I did, despite the fact I was giving away what I considered value. Discussed it briefly on the Betfair cricket forum. All a question of approach. As a purely value better I'd have been taking the price I was offering. As a trader who prefers a consistency in results I was doing the opposite, while also being guilty of protecting what profit I had left. This is an area of my sports betting / trading that is increasingly interesting me and I think today has been the spur to take a good look at the issue over the next few weeks.

Anyway, away from the cricket trading I've noticed that after forgetting to book 4 weeks of holidays for my wedding and honeymoon my Betfair points are now above the level they were at before I went away. Still paid a whole lot more commission than I needed to but good to be back at the better reduction rates. Won't make that mistake again.

Going to have a day off the trading tomorrow, will endure the undoubted misery of watching England's rugby quater final against Australia and will be no doubt be firing the trading software up again on Sunday. If I get the time I'm hoping to do a blog entry on cutting losses and letting wins run tomorrow.