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The Betfair Contrarian: Why South Africa won't win the Test Series

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The Betfair Contrarian is at it again - this time trying to convince us that warm-favourites South Africa won't be going home with a Test Series win under their belts.

England's five-month flirtation with New Zealand is over and finally there is someone new to hang around with in the shape of South Africa. While it feels as though England have never fully recovered from the trauma of their 2006-07 Ashes whitewash in Australia, South Africa have been on a bit of a roll (P16, W11, D2 L3 since January 2007). Don't be fooled, though, they won't win this series, and if you act fast enough you can still lay them at evens.

England are on a bit of a roll themselves...

Don't take too much notice of the uninspiring 3-1 loss to New Zealand in the ODI series. England started 2008 in great test form, with series wins both home and away against New Zealand. England lost their first test of the year in Hamilton, but rallied to win four and draw one of the five since. That means they start this series on a five-test unbeaten sequence.

...and consistency is key

It is no coincidence that England's unbeaten run has occurred during a period where they have stuck to starting the same eleven players - Vaughan, Strauss, Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Ambrose, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson and Panesar - for five straight matches. England's selectors have confirmed that the same XI will line up for the first test at Lord's, marking the first time ever that a team has gone unchanged for six straight test matches.

England rarely lose at home

Peter Moores' team have a stunning record in home test series. Of their 13 series since home humiliation against Australia in the 2001 Ashes, England have lost just once - winning nine and drawing three. The one defeat came against India last year in a three-test series by a score of just 1-0. India are ranked as the second best test team in the world by the ICC, and the last time England, ranked third, lost a series to a team other than Australia and India at home was against New Zealand way back in 1999.

You're only as good as your last test

South Africa are unbeaten in seven series and their last series loss came in August 2006. However, of South Africa's (ranked fourth) six series wins (they drew the other) over that period, only one was against a nation currently ranked higher than them, second-placed India, who they beat 2-1 in the winter of 2006-07. They have met again since, drawing a three-test series 1-1 in India earlier this year. South Africa will feel they could have done better, having taken the lead, but they blew it in their last test match, losing by eight wickets, which means they arrive in England on a downer.

South Africa are not so good away

Their successful run is built on series of two or three matches (this is a fourtest tour) and only two of their six victories came away from home. South Africa have won just three of their last eleven away test series and those came against the West Indies (ranked eighth), Pakistan (sixth) and Bangladesh (ninth).

They don't do well in England

Since 1945, South Africa have faced England away from home in eight different series and they have only once returned home as victors (in 1965). There have been 36 matches over the course of those series and South Africa have only been victorious in eight, which works out as one win in every four-and-a-half tests. England have won 17.

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