The Betfair Contrarian: Why Pakistan will win the Fourth Test

Test previews / The Betfair Contrarian / 26 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mohammad Yousuf playing a trademark shot down to third man. His return has been a calming influence on the team.

"Yousuf’s greatest feat in the third test may have been his positive influence on his colleagues, but given his batting record at Lord’s, he could have an even bigger say in the outcome of the fourth and final test. Yousuf’s average at the famous ground is 70.5 and he memorably fired a double century in north-west London in 2006, one of only two delivered by a visiting batsman in the last 25 years."

England were crusing to victory in the Series before a good old-fashioned mid-nineties-like batting collapse in the Third Test opened the door for Pakistan, who took advantage. The misery for England doesn't end there though, says the Betfair Contrarian.

A seemingly unassailable lead is never quite so watertight when an English sports team are asked to defend it, which is why the Contrarian wasn't surprised whatsoever that after convincing wins in the first two tests of their series with Pakistan, England's cricket team somehow contrived to lose the third. Despite the morale boost they gained at The Oval, Pakistan are [6.4] to tie the series with victory in the finale at Lord's. The Contrarian thinks they'll do it, and this is why...

England have surrendered their momentum

Pakistan's four-wicket victory in the third test brought an end to England's streak of six consecutive wins, which was their most impressive run in six years. The worry now for the series hosts is that they tend to react badly to having their rhythm interrupted. The last time that England triumphed in three or more successive test matches was in 2007 and once that momentum was halted, their response was to completely lose their way, going seven without success.

Mohammad Yousuf's return is a game changer...

Just how did Pakistan go from being comfortably second best in the first two tests to stunning England at The Oval? There's no doubt that the return of veteran batsman Mohammad Yousuf, who had retired from internationals earlier in the year after the Pakistan Cricket Board's ridiculous decision to indefinitely ban him, made a huge difference. His innings of 56 and 33 were solid but unspectacular and his calmness at the crease set an example to his confidence-crushed teammates. Steve James of the Daily Telegraph likened his impact to that of a shepherd, as he inspired those around him, such as Azhar Ali. The 25-year-old managed only 33 runs in total in his first four innings of the series, which featured two ducks, before achieving an unbeaten 92 last week.

...and he'll be even more effective at Lord's

Yousuf's greatest feat in the third test may have been his positive influence on his colleagues, but given his batting record at Lord's, he could have an even bigger say in the outcome of the fourth and final test. Yousuf's average at the famous ground is 70.5 and he memorably fired a double century in north-west London in 2006, one of only two delivered by a visiting batsman in the last 25 years.

England have one eye on The Ashes...

It's not exactly their fault, considering several Australian cricketers have started the sledging already and won't stop speaking about the Ashes, regardless of the fact that the first test in Brisbane is still another three months away, yet suggestions that England have grown complacent since taking a 2-0 lead are understandable. In fact, bowling coach David Saker claimed it was an issue in the latter stages of the second test too.

...and appear to be taking Pakistan lightly

Young bowler Steven Finn was a little too dismissive of the prospect of a Pakistan comeback when he downplayed their third test victory and commented that they are "a batting collapse waiting to happen". Not only are such statements counterproductive because of the additional motivation it potentially provides the visitors with, it also doesn't reflect the way the series has developed. As Finn points out, they have bowled Pakistan out for 80 and 72, but that was in the second innings of the first test and first of the second, since when their opponents have made significant progress.