The Betfair Contrarian: Why India won't win the First Test

Test previews / The Betfair Contrarian / 10 December 2008 / 3 Comments

Terrorist attacks and humiliation in the recent ODI Series haven't exactly made for the best preparation as far as England are concerned but they won't be losing the First Test, says the Betfair Contrarian. Here's why...

Although England's cricketers have kindly pledged half of their match fees for the first test to the victims of the Mumbai terror attacks, the Contrarian is convinced that this will be the only act of generosity shown by England in Chennai this week. After a wretched start in the ODI series in India last month, England's fortunes got progressively worse before the tour was halted by the terror attacks.

Now that the five-day stuff is beginning and the England team have made a united decision to return to India, however, the Contrarian is confident that Kevin Pietersen's men will not be giving the hosts a head start. Here's why England will avoid defeat in the first test:

India are slow starters

India have won the first test in just one of their last seven series. Even more alarmingly for the hosts, they have failed to win the opening test in any of their last four- losing to Australia, drawing with South Africa, losing to Sri Lanka then drawing with Australia.

Whereas England rarely open with defeat

England have lost the first test of just two of their six series and are unbeaten in the last two. England's impressive first test record is just as prominent against India, with England going without defeat in the last three series openers and losing just two of the last seven, during which time they have won three.

England have a good record in Chennai...

England have played four test matches in Chennai since 1977 and have only lost once. Over that period England have enjoyed two convincing victories, one by two hundred runs and the other by nine wickets. India have found winning in Chennai particularly difficult in recent years because draws are common, with their last three test matches in the city finishing without a winner.

...and a stunning record in two-test series

England have competed in seventeen two-test series and they have never in their history lost one. Even more impressively, their three most recent two-test successes have been resounding 2-0 triumphs. England last lost the opener in a two-test series in 1877 against Australia, generally regarded as the first ever test match. Since then England have played sixteen two-test series without ever losing the opener.

Yuvraj won't have the same impact he had last month

Yuvraj Singh was a thorn in England's side in the ODI series, scoring successive centuries in the opening two one-day clashes and as a result has been picked in the test side for the first time since April. England shouldn't be too worried though, because Yuvraj isn't as impressive in test match action, especially against England. He has a batting average of 21.33 from his two test matches against them, which pales in comparison to the recently retired Sourav Ganguly's average of 57.82 against the same opposition.

The lack of preparation doesn't disadvantage England

England haven't had as much time to prepare as they would have liked because of the terror attacks but the Indian team have been just as disadvantaged by the tragedy. India's Sachin Tendulkar revealed the impact it has had on him by saying: "I have been disturbed...tracking the horrific images of mayhem on television. I couldn't sleep all this time. I am numb. The images keep playing in my head." England's Alastair Cook revealed that he's had to play without much preparation in the past without it being a major issue: "The preparation has not been ideal. But I have been here two years ago, having travelled half way round the world, had just one training session and played. It can be done. You don't lose your technique overnight, it's very much a mental battle."

Comments (3)

1. Pablo Luna | 10 December 2008

   I have to disagree. India at 2.34 looks a good bet!

2. Pablo Luna | 15 December 2008

   Told you!

   Pablo

3. Portuguese Pirate | 15 December 2008

   Fair enough Pablo but they did drift to odds of 55 on Befair before eventually winning. In other words, they can be considered pretty fortunate to have won!