Test previews / Andrew Hughes / 25 February 2009 / Leave a comment

There's no doubt in Andrew Hughes' mind as to who is the better team here and the betting agrees with him. The First Test is at The Wanderers in Johannesburg, a venue that very often tends to produce a result so the best bet of all may be laying the draw...

Australia have had a disappointing summer. No, lets be frank, they've had a shocker, a 'mare, a season from hell. Beating up on the poor Black Caps doesn't fool anyone. The school bullies of world cricket got their asses whupped in their own backyard. As Symonds spiralled out of control, Clark and Lee joined the sick list and Katich and Pup came to blows in the Sydney dressing room, the aura of invincibility they had worked so hard and so long to create was finally dispelled. What they need now is some time to lick their wounds and start again. But the fixture list can be cruel. What they've got instead is a return ticket to South Africa.

Number One

Let's be clear. When the First Test gets under way in Johannesburg on Thursday, it will not be about deciding who the best team in the world is. If such a title is to be contested, it will be between the hosts and the superstars from India. Ponting's ragged mob are several lengths behind in third place and losing ground. The ICC rankings don't reflect this and I suspect that if you keep your own team ratings, they might also show the two teams as fairly closely matched, thanks to the lingering statistical effects of the years of Aussie dominance. Though ratings can be a useful weapon in the punter's armoury, they sometimes fail to show the whole truth. Right now, South Africa are a far, far better team than Australia.

Ch...ch...changes

Over the course of their disastrous summer, the Aussies have been handing out baggy green caps with wild abandon. And the selectoral merry-go-round is still spinning. It's likely that they'll start the First Test with three debutants and two others who made their debuts this winter. Promising but unorthodox young opener Phil Hughes is certain to fill Matthew Hayden's size twelves. At number six, once capped Andrew McDonald could give way to uncapped Marcus North. North's six wickets in the warm up game opens up the possibility of playing four seamers and with Lee and Clark hors de combat, Mitchell Johnson once again finds himself the senior bowler. Siddle has potential, but the jury have only just begun deliberating on the merits of Mr. Bollinger and Mr. Hilfenhaus.

South Africa

South Africa, meanwhile, are unchanged. Ashwell Prince has had a bumper year with the bat, but having lost his place due to injury, he just can't get back in the side. And a quick glance at the stats for the Australian tour reveal the source of the Proteas strength. Aside from Dale Steyn, no South African bowler went for less than 38 runs a wicket. By contrast, four batsmen averaged over 50. Graeme Smith's side have established their dominance primarily by the unrelenting way their batsmen grind the opposition down. J P Duminy has added a touch of class to the batting machine.

Welcome to the Bullring
The Wanderers, Johannesburg is just about the most intimidating arena in the country. The four storey vertical stands amplify spectator sound and the tourists can expect a rowdy reception. But surprisingly, it hasn't always been a happy hunting ground for the South Africans. Nine of the last ten Tests there have ended in a result and the home side have lost four of them, twice to Australia. In recent years, the pitch has tended to favour swing and seam bowlers, offering variable bounce and deteriorating markedly as the match goes on. The prospect of overcast, showery and occasionally thundery weather promise rich pickings for those able to swing the Kookaburra early on.

Bets

Of course, Australia are the underdogs. Recent form between the two teams, the number of rookies in the Aussie line-up, lingering doubts over Clarke (injury) and Hussey (form) and an ill-timed outbreak of gastroenteritis in the squad all contribute to a price of [4.0] about the visitors drawing first blood, with the home side on [2.72] With the pitch not likely to play tp the South African batting strength, the sensible option might be to lay the draw at [2.58].