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Test Match Betting: Quick Old Trafford wicket should allow Anderson to shine

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The Hawkeye View - Betfair's Live Test Match blogger Ed Hawkins pays tribute to Steve Harmison who has probably played his last Test, but predicts plenty of wickets in an England win for his successor James Anderson

It may have escaped your attention - probably because the first Test at Lord's had sent you into a comatose state - but 30 or so minutes after the England and New Zealand players decided to call it a day at HQ, time was also probably called on the career of one of the home side's greatest bowlers.

Without any sense of drama, Michael Vaughan announced to the press corps that Chris Tremlett had been called up for the squad for the second Test in Manchester. It meant there was no room for Steve Harmison, England's tenth highest Test wicket-taker of all time.

The significance of Harmison not returning should not be underestimated. Okay, he was awful in New Zealand but he has been in good form for Durham and certainly bowling well enough to come back on an Old Trafford pitch which he must wish he could carry around with him. If England don't want him there, they don't want him anywhere.

The fast and bouncy nature of the Old Trafford surface gives England, who are [1.74], a huge advantage over New Zealand who are [7.7] with the draw [3.45]. It would be even greater had they picked Harmison, who has a fantastic record on the ground.

He took six wickets there on his last outing for England against West Indies in 2007 and scared the life out of the Pakistan players in 2006, peppering them with short stuff on his way to 11 wickets in the match. So worried was the late Bob Woolmer about the quick track that he brought a slab of marble to the nets to bounce balls off so his Pakistan batsmen could get an idea of the conditions. It didn't work.

New Zealand's batsmen may need to try something equally as innovative. Woolmer correctly identified that the Pakistanis would have seen nothing like it before, and Kiwi coach John Bracewell will be aware that most of his charges will not have experienced a pitch as quick as Old Trafford, too.

The ones that have may not fancy it, either. New Zealand have historically struggled on quick pitches. As recently as November 2007 they were blown away by South Africa's fearsome pace duo of Dale Steyn and Makhaya Ntini on a lively Johannesburg track. It was no one-off because in May the previous year, the same pair on the same wicket knocked the Kiwis cold for 119 and 283.

Old Trafford is reputed to be the quicker than Jo'burg. Indeed it is the quickest in the world and lived up to that tag in the recent Championship encounter between Lancashire and Durham when batsmen didn't stand a chance. The hosts were bowled out for 143 as they were terrorised by the nippy Mark Davies - Harmison softened them up - but Lancashire got their own back by unleashing James Anderson and Andrew Flintoff who took 16 wickets between them as Durham were skittled for 114 and 90.

Anderson could be the key man again. His bowling style should make him dangerous while Stuart Broad's height and the awkward lengths he bowls makes him more likely to upset the Kiwis than Ryan Sidebottom's swingers.

With that in mind, England should comfortably achieve a first-innings lead. Even though they are as short as [1.44] to do so, it could be a price worth taking when you consider that only once in their last five Tests there have they failed to do so.

Of course there is better value on the match odds market and England are likely to be well-backed. They have lost only two of their last 12 in Manchester, average a massive 423 in their last five first innings compared to their opponents' 259. But bear in mind that Harmison was around for those.

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