Test Match Betting: Pakistan v Australia

Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 12 July 2010 / 2 Comments

Michael Clarke has form at Lord's

"The most profitable route in Lord’s Tests down the years has been to back the draw on the first morning and lay off at lunch with the batting side going well."

Pakistan, the home team, take on Australia at Lord's on Tuesday hoping to avenge a horrible result down under. Ed Hawkins loves their bowling but hates their batting

Team news
Trying to keep up with Pakistan's merry-go-round selection policy can be a dizzying affair. Inevitably, changes have come thick and fast in the wake of a disgraceful performance in Australia when they were beaten three zip.

Among the most notable absentees include Mohammad Yousuf, Misbah, Mohammad Sami and Faisal Iqbal. Following such a cull one would think Younis Khan would be back, but he isn't. Instead Pakistan have a mixture of green and plain not good enough batsmen. A probable top four of Imran Farhat, Salman Butt, Yasir Hameed and Umar Akmal does not inspire confidence.

With the ball they have an embarrassment of riches: Mohammad Asif, Mohammad Aamer and Umar Gul are a fine pace-bowling trio while they could play two spinners in Danish Kaneria and Saeed Ajmal.

Australia are much better balanced. They have a settled opening partnership in Shane Watson and Simon Katich and a strong middle order in the form of mainstays Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and Michael Hussey. It will be down to Mitchell Johnson, who must learn from his Ashes disappointment last summer, and Doug Bollinger to take the wickets.

Venue and conditions
Lord's, the grand old home of cricket, has produced a pitch as stale and lifeless as some of its austere MCC members in recent years. A festival of dull draws between 2006-08 (six in total) were a cash cow for draw backers..

There have been three straight results since but expect the wicket to be a delight to bat on. In the last 10 first-innings, four times a side has passed 500. That may explain why Australia are as short as [2.00] for 500 or more and an Aussie is [1.40] for a ton in the first dig.

Series betting
Pakistan have been written off in this two-Test series. They are [7.20] with Australia [1.56] and the draw [3.95]. Despite the Lord's surface being good to bat on Pakistan's big problem is game two at Headingley, where seam and swing will surely seem them unravel . Australia hammered England there last summer.

Match odds
When it comes to betting on Test matches the wise money is on the side most likely to take 20 wickets. In other words, the better bowling side. Clearly Pakistan have the edge. The problem is their batting could be utterly woeful.

Pakistan are [7.20] with Australia [2.14] and the draw [2.48]. The most profitable route in Lord's Tests down the years has been to back the draw on the first morning and lay off at lunch with the batting side going well.

Top batsman
Much will depend on Umar, Shahid Afridi and Shoaib Malik, Pakistan's three best batsman. Umar is [5.10], Afridi [11.00] and Shoaib [6.00]. There is little to get excited about otherwise. Farhat averages 33 in Tests, Butt 30 and Hameed 34.

Michael Clarke, at [6.20] is the value call for Australia. He has the best record of his teammates on the ground, averaging 59 with one ton. Otherwise there is a paucity of runs; Ricky Ponting averages just 16 in six innings. Mike Hussey and Katich both have marks in the 30s.

Featured market
Farhat and Butt average 51 for the first wicket in the last 10 Tests. It is a surprisingly good record as the inclination is to get against them. They are [2.22] for 50 or more.

Ed Hawkins says: back M Clarke for top Aus bat at [6.20]

Comments (2)

1. tariq | 15 July 2010

   shahid afridi is best captan of the world

2. riaz ahmed | 17 July 2010

   very weak performance of pakistani cricket team. Really all pakistani feel very ashamed to watch the match.But better luck for future