Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 04 February 2010 /

The best Test sides in the world meet in Nagpur on Saturday. Can they live up to the billing by producing a memorable game or will draw backers be in their element? Ed Hawkins has the answers

Team news
This contest in Nagpur (Saturday, 04.00GMT) is the first of two Tests which pitches the best side in the world, India, against the second-best, South Africa. Whatever your feelings about the vagaries of the ICC Test rankings it is tough to split the two so definitively with both going through a crisis, one small, one large.

India have lost 'The Wall', Rahul Dravid to a fractured cheekbone while Yuvraj Singh, their explosive No 6 is also missing with injury. There are even worries about VVS Laxman. Sub Badrinath and Rohit Sharma could make their debuts to give India a vulnerable-looking middle order.

South Africa's problems centre around their coach and selection panel. They don't have either. It would be easy to write off the visitors on that basis but Graeme Smith, the skipper, is too strong a leader to allow that to happen. Smith has decisions to make, not particularly tough ones though. Johan Botha or Paul Harris for the spinner slot? Ashwell Prince or Alviro Petersen for the other opening berth? The former on both counts.

Match odds
Before getting down to the nitty gritty of the odds for this match, it is worth looking at the series prices because over such a short series, it is all relative. India, available to lay at [2.50], look vulnerable while a back of the draw at [2.88] also appeals. South Africa are [4.00].

The downer on India can be explained by their poor record in the first Test of a home series. They just don't get out of the blocks, winning only two of their previous 10. They have drawn seven of those. So the relationship between the series prices (with the second Test at a draw-friendly Eden Gardens) is clear.

India are [3.35] to win in Nagpur, the draw is [1.98] and South Africa are [4.80]. As tempting as South Africa are - since their return from wilderness in 1996 no side has fared better in India - it is likely they will drift alarmingly to make up for the equally rapid shift south on the stalemate.

In India runs are to be expected. Whoever bats first should bat long and if it is South Africa, they will bat slowly repeating the safety-first approach which cost them against England. That's fine in India, though and their first job will not be to lose. A back and lay of the draw could be a wise trade.

Pitch conditions
Five of the nine Tests played at the Vidarbha CA ground have ended in draws. Not surprising when the wicket is flat and the ball seldom moves off the straight. There will be a bit of juice in the pitch first up but not for long. The average first-innings score in the last five is 434. India are [1.90] for 450 or more, South Africa are [2.00].

Top batsman
India's batting is revered and at times one can feel like a kid in a sweet shop when choosing which one to bet on. For example, Gautam Gambhir, Sachin Tendulkar and MS Dhoni all average 80 or more in the last 12 months. Tendulkar has the benefit of two top-bat efforts on this ground in the last five. But then there is Virender Sehwag, who averages 60 in first Tests of a series, the best of the top six.

For South Africa, support would have to go to either Jacques Kallis or AB De Villiers. They average 55 and 76 respectively in India. Smith has a healthy mark of 44 but he could be distracted by all the off-the-field wrangling.

Featured market
The toss combination market betrays the importance of the flip in this game if there is to be result. All four victories at the venue went to the side batting first and both sides are priced at [2.04] to win the toss and win the game.

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