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Test cricket betting: Jacques will need to ply his trade

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Andrew Hughes tells us why India will provide the sternest of tests for Graeme Smith's men and why all may not be well in India's camp

With the tour to New Zealand over and done and three weeks yet before the curtain goes up on the county season, you might be contemplating a break and a chance to charge your cricket batteries. Well think again. Squeezed into a corner of the cramped international schedule is a must-see confrontation; a fascinating tussle between India and South Africa, with the winner set to secure second place behind faltering Test champions Australia.

At first sight, the fight doesn't look to be a fair one. Since their readmission to the cricket family, South Africa have not enjoyed their trips to southern Asia. Lacking the patience to weather top quality spin bowling on the low slow featherbeds of the subcontinent, they've suffered too for the dearth of decent spinners in their own ranks. The current market accurately reflects these historical truths with India a solid [1.8] to win the series and the visitors precarious on [4.8].

Yet though the Indians are rightly favourites, you should be wary of assuming that the tourists will be easy prey for Kumble's men. Last year they won 1-0 in the dust of Pakistan, a surprise to their supporters and something of a breakthrough. Anchored by the weighty Jaques Kallis they turned the spin-bowling tables on their hosts with the help of emerging left-armer Paul Harris.

That said, the opening Test in Chennai will be a searching test of their subcontinental credentials. In twenty years, the MA Chidambaram Stadium has only hosted one home defeat. Both Harbajhan and Kumble have impressive records here and are sure to give the techniques of all the visiting batsmen a thorough going over.

Of course, surviving the spin-twins is only part of the victory equation. South Africa will need to wield a cutting edge of their own. Paul Harris will hope that the fabled weakness of Indian batsmen against left-armers is not just a fairy tale. But their sharpest blade is that of the Phalaborwa Express, Dale Steyn. He has scythed his way rapidly through the ranks of Pakistan, New Zealand and West Indies. Now he has to cross swords with the steeliest batting line-up in the world.

Having dismantled their vaunted middle-order to make way for the wayward Yuvraj, sanity has returned and Dravid is back at three. Behind him follow Tendulkar, Ganguly and Laxman, a trio of names to cause even the stoutest bowler's lower lip to tremble. And though they toyed with Pathan at Adelaide and Perth, expect the patient Jaffer to resume his opening position; the perfect foil to Virender Sehwag's rejuvenated brilliance.

As always in India there has been no shortage of chatter and rumour, most of which should have no bearing on the cricket bettor's thinking. A case in point is the continued whispering about a rift between the younger players and their seniors. This is just a rehash of the gossip from the time of Dravid and Ganguly's omission from the one day side. More intriguing is the role of India's new mental conditioning coach, Paddy Upton, who not so long ago was working for South Africa. He has pledged not to divulge any personal details but it isn't hard to imagine that his insight into the psychological make-up of the visiting players will not be utilised in some way by the home team.

India are favourites for the First Test at [2.52] with South Africa on [4.8] The draw is short at [2.42] which no doubt is due to the history of torrential downpours at this ground. Though it's rare for matches in March to be rain affected, there was drizzle in the air yesterday and the five-day forecast isn't promising. As well as the weather, you should also remember that South Africa's batting tends towards the stodgy these days. They are quite capable of batting for a day and a half or more if they need to hold on for the draw.

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