Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 05 November 2007 / 5 Comments

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins tells us all about Ricky Ponting's outstanding record at the Gabba

SUPERSTITIOUS cricketers make for nervous cricketers in the eyes of many punters so raise an eyebrow at the revelation that few are more irrational than one of the most reliable betting tools there has ever been:Ricky Ponting.

Ponting insists that his wife watches every ball he faces when at the crease and that she sits in a seat with the No 14 on the back. Otherwise he reckons he won't score many at all.
Mrs Ponting has obviously been adhering to her husband's rules at Brisbane's Gabba ground. Ponting has left many bowlers wishing they didn't have to watch and wondering whether their wives had placed themselves in seat No 13.

The Australian captain leads his side against Sri Lanka there for the first Test of two on Thursday with statistics and the formbook pointing to Ponting being in luck again.
At the Gabba Ponting is at his brilliant best and punters should consider backing him on the top Australian first-innings runscorer market (4.5) although bear in mind that that is an early price and the market is expected to shift.

The concrete-bowl Gabba is Ponting's second most successful home ground in terms of average with a mark of 76 with only Sydney (average 81.7) beating it.

However, what is really impressive for bettors is Ponting's consistency. Often an average like that has been skewed thanks to a one big score and a couple of cheeky not outs but it is not the case with our man.

Only seven times in his 18 innings at the venue has Ponting failed to score fewer than 50 as he has notched four centuries and six fifties. Indeed his last seven innings read 60 not out/196/104 not out/149/51/50/54 (www.cricinfo.com). Pretty impressive stuff.

Anyone who saw Ponting hammer the Ashes hopes from England's bowlers at the Gabba at this time last year will be on him purely because the placid pitch plays perfectly into his hands.

Others may like to point to the dominance that the top three batsmen have enjoyed in the top runscorer betting over the last ten years in Tests there. It is a waste of time getting with anyone lower down than No 3 with 12 of the last 20 first-innings top bat honours being taken by those at the top.

This is one of the reasons why Australia have not lost at the Gabba since 1988 (to a West Indies side including Ambrose, Walsh and Marshall). The Aussies average a whopping 472 when they bat first there in the last ten matches, bumping up the overall first innings average over the same period to a very healthy 386.

That figure would be higher had West Indies batsmen not gone missing in 2000 when they were shot out for just 82 and Sri Lanka's batsmen should be confident of posting a decent score were they to bat first.

Windies' wobbles aside the lowest score in our study period is 323 and the Lankans could be a decent bet to score more than 325 on their first-innings runs market (2.01).

There may also be some value on the Test match end market. Despite Australia's dominance it is rare that they send an opposition packing inside three days. Six of the last ten Tests have gone to the final day.

Test finishes at the Gabba in last ten
Day 3 afternoon (9.4) 1
Day 4 afternoon (6) 1
Day 4 evening (2.02) 1
Day 5 morning (6.2) 1
Day 5 afternoon (5.3)
Day 5 evening (2.12) 4

Question: if you had to choose one man to bat for your life and at a particular venue, who and where would it be?

Tags: Australian cricket, cricket betting, cricket stats, Ricky Ponting