Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 05 April 2012 /

It was the Kevin Pietersen show this afternoon, who hit one of the best centuries we've seen in a while. But England will have to toil tomorrow against some stubborn batsmen and we're likely to have to wait to the final day to get a result, says Ed Hawkins.

England are on course for victory after an awesome third day of the second Test against Sri Lanka in Colombo. They should wrap up a series-levelling victory from such a position of strength and their confidence against spin will have been boosted immeasurably.

That is how the patriot will view the third day, anyhow. With a lead of 181 after posting 460 in reply to Sri Lanka's 275 the tub-thumping Englishman will argue that nothing can go wrong. You can't blame him. It must be difficult this afternoon not to be a cocky and crowing English supporter after watching Kevin Pietersen's 151 - one of the finest Test tons one is likely to see.

There is still a hint of potential trouble ahead, though. This is Test cricket. This is England. This is England in the sub-continent. It is tempting indeed to have a few quid on Sri Lanka at the whopping price of [19.50]. England are [1.56] and the draw is [3.15].

This is because it is easy to see a course down which England could come under pressure. Because we have seen it before. Sri Lanka's price could well dip just as Pakistan's did in Abu Dhabi. Pakistan, incredibly, won that game and although we are not suggesting England will be defeated, we are merely trying to see the potential of a back-to-lay trade of the hosts.

In Abu Dhabi, England, who enjoyed a first-innings lead, were set a target of 145 batting last on a wearing pitch. They were hurried to a harrowing loss when dismissed for 72.
It is not stretching the imagination to reckon that Sri Lankla will be capable of frustrating England in their second innings. Tillakaratne Dilshan and Kumar Sangakkara are both due scores while Mahela Jaywardene has denied England victory previously. Lord's in 2006 springs to mind.

Still, England will hope that the wearing pitch works in their favour and if they can restrict Sri Lanka to no more than 320 they should, barring a return of the UAE and Galle wobbles, avoid series defeat.

How likely are Sri Lanka to score that many? Well, in Tests since 2002 at this venue the average third-innings score is 246. If we filter those results to the last five only, however, the average score is 293. Sri Lanka are [2.00] for 275 runs or more.

The Test match end market also catches the eye. In those Tests since 2002 a wicket has fallen, on average, around every eight overs in the third innings. If we get a repeat of that then Sri Lanka will be bowled out at the end of day four or early in the first session on day five. The average run rate in the last five third innings is 3.18 so England will be happy if they concede 250 or 260.

That would suggest that a finish on the morning of day five or the afternoon is not unreasonable. Both outcomes can be backed at [4.00] and [5.00] respectively.

Recommended bets

Back Test Match End Day 5 morning at [4.00]
Back Test Match End Day 5 afternoon at [5.00]

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