South Africa v West Indies - 2nd Test

Test previews / Andrew Hughes / 01 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

After their first test win for over two years - can the Windies make it two in a row? Cricket betting don Andrew Hughes mulls over the odds.

When betting on sport, even a slow-moving sport like cricket, it is important to remain flexible, to adjust your opinion of a team's merit if the evidence indicates you are out of date. Every so often the tectonic plates of the game shift a little and you have to shift with them. In the 1996 World Cup, Sri Lanka reinvented one-day cricket and wise punters caught on fast. Likewise in 2005, those quick to spot the weaknesses in the Australian team could cash in.

I believe something similar happened this Christmas in Port Elizabeth where against the odds, the West Indians did something they hadn't done for a long time. They won a Test match. And they didn't win it due to a massive slice of fortune or one outstanding performance. It was a victory built on discipline, concentration and above all togetherness. Whether you put it down to Chris Gayle's ability to generate team spirit or the early influence of new coach John Dyson, I believe there is clear evidence that at long last the West Indies could be about to make the most of their talent.

So as we look to the next match in Cape Town, perceptions should have shifted and the market should have done so as well. However, it doesn't appear that this has happened. Despite the clear signals from Port Elizabeth that we could be dealing with a new cricket reality, South Africa are still trading as massive favourites for the Second Test and West Indies are big outsiders at a scarcely credible [9.00] I've already helped myself to some of that and I suggest you do the same. But if you're of a more cautious bent, you could do just as well to lay the home side at the astonishingly low figure of [1.52]

South Africa have problems. Their bowling has its weak points, most notably a lack of control in the absence of Shaun Pollock. But it is the batting that gives most cause for concern. Jacques Kallis may look like a mountain of a man these days, but he needs to be, since this batting Atlas is propping up the entire order. And the two openers, Gibbs and Smith are the main culprits. Their last five opening partnerships have yielded on average just 3.2. Add their four innings in Pakistan to the equation and the average is still a paltry 22. Such a calamitous dip in standards can only be explained by a simultaneous loss of form and the stats back that up. Smith has managed a solitary century in his last 38 innings, whilst Gibbs has not passed 100 in 48 attempts.

There is no alternative to Smith as captain so with the drafting of in-form batsmen Neil McKenzie into the squad, it looks as though Herschelle Gibbs is about to be handed a spell in the cricket wilderness. His problem isn't technical, despite his tendency sometimes to struggle to get into line with the ball. He has such fast hand movement and natural timing, that when he is on song, like many of the best batsmen, he easily compensates for minor technical faults. His slump is due to a loss of confidence. Gibbs, to a greater extent than most, is a confidence player. He needs an uncluttered mind and the freedom to play his shots and the pressures of a long run without a big score have built up to such an extent that perhaps only a spell on the sidelines will help him to clear his head and get his edge back.

In his absence, if McKenzie is not felt to be ready to open, the home side could do worse than promote AB De Villiers once more. His remodelled technique, with just the one backward step isn't pretty but the early signs are that it has made him a more effective and defensively solid batsman. But even though the rearranged batting order may well give South Africa a bit more backbone, now that the West Indies have raised their game, I think that the current odds are way out of line and that they have to be backed to win the Second Test.

But what do you think? Are the West Indies on the way back? Let me know.