Second Test Betting: Pakistan v Australia

Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 20 July 2010 / 1 Comments

Salman Butt will lead Pakistan

"Once the sun comes out, batting gets easier. Remember that when you are betting in-running."

Pakistan find themselves in a familiar state of chaos as they prepare for the second Test at Headingley. Ed Hawkins is not concerned, though and suggests conditions could help them recover

Team news
Shahid Afridi's hissy fit after one match brought familiar headlines. Turmoil. Crisis. Shambles. No-one suggested this was a normal situation for a team who are in a constant state of flux. If it's not a contradiction, the status quo has remained.

Salman Butt is the new leader after Afridi's decision to resign and retire in a fit of pique after the humbling at Lord's. Butt will sit down with his coaches to decide whether Saeed Ajmal, the offspinner, is better equipped than Danish Kaneria to attack Australia's left-handers.

Afridi's absence is hardly a blow considering his chaotic effort at HQ - 33 runs and one wicket at more than four an over - and if Shoaib Malik returns to add much-needed solidity to the middle order then it is a bonus.

Australia have doubts over Marcus North and Ben Hilfenhaus, but they appear to be the kind of concerns that one shouldn't factor into a punting plan. North has an upset tummy while Hilfenhaus has a shoulder niggle. Batsman Usman Khawaja, who could become the first Muslim to wear the Baggy Green, and fast man Peter George stand by.

Venue and conditions
Headingley has a reputation for helping the seam and swing bowlers. Alas, it is not quite as simple as that. Conditions have to be right for bite or bend. If the sun is shining, forget it. That explains mixed first-innings totals in the 2000s: five scores of 400 or more (including India's massive 628) and four scores of 230 or fewer.

Early morning rain on day one will provide moisture and cloud should still be hanging around. But once the sun comes out, batting gets easier. Remember that when you are betting in-running. Heavy rain showers are forecast for day two and light rain for day three.

Match odds
Australia, who hammered England on this ground last year, are [1.86] to make it a 2-0 sweep in the MCC Spirit of Cricket series. It is a tempting price indeed considering the ease with which they beat Pakistan at Lord's, especially as conditions could again aid their bowlers.

But hang on. If the ball does seam and swing, then do Pakistan not have a better shout than odds of [9.00] suggest? Absolutely. Mohammad Asif, Mohammad Aamer and Umar Gul could be lethal if they get the right conditions.

It is not that big a if, surely only a 50-50 call. Australia are as likely to have to bat under grey skies with moisture rising as Pakistan so the advice has to be to back them. This is not the sort of wager we would suggest letting ride but if Pakistan do manage to knock out quick Australia wickets - don't forget they restricted them in the first-innings in game one - then they will be considerably shorter.

Price movement is expected on the draw. Currently it is [2.76] but we are certain that will shorten as more punters see the weather forecast. A quick, although admittedly large, back and lay before a ball is bowled should provide ammo. Don't get suckered, though. This is a result wicket: no draws in this decade.

Top batsman
We are ruling out Simon Katich, Shane Watson, Butt and Imran Farhat. All openers, all bad value. Only one opening batsman has top-scored in first-innings in the last 18. The most profitable position during that study period is the No 6, who has copped six times.
North and Kamran Akmal should bat in that position for their respective sides. North, who made a century against England in the Ashes last summer, is [6.40] under Any Other. Akmal is [7.20].

Michael Clarke made a century in the same game as North while Ricky Ponting notched 78. Ponting has a fine record in Leeds. He averages 105 with 421 runs. Ponting is [4.90] for top bat and [1.70] to score a first-innings 50.

Ed Hawkins says: back to lay Pakistan at [9.00] in second Test

Comments (1)

1. Ed Hawkins | 21 July 2010

   Aus 20-2. Pakistan down to 4s so the trade could pay off very early