Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 08 October 2010 /

Following the nailbiting first Test, India and Australia do it all again in Bangalore from Saturday. Ed Hawkins analyses the stats and trends some value

Team news
You can do it if you put your back in to it, was the motto which got VVS Laxman and India over the line in the incredible first Test. It is relevant again because VVS is struggling with the same injury which focussed his mind in Mohali.

MS Dhoni expects the batsman to be fit, although India have more pressing injury concerns. Opening batsman Gautam Gambhir and paceman Ishant Sharma have both been ruled out. Murali Vijay and Sreesanth come in respectively.

Australia have a doubt over fast bowler Doug Bollinger, who was named in the ICC ODI and Test teams of the year. Bollinger has a side strain and could be replaced by debutant Peter George, the lanky South Australian.

Venue and conditions
India have a naughty reputation for doctoring pitches to suit them at the end of a series so will the Bangalore surface be flat and bland? Well, best-laid plans appear to have been disrupted by the weather.

"Owing to recent rains," said groundsman Narayan Raju, "there is a lot of moisture in the pitch, and because of the overcast conditions, the moisture hasn't dried out. If the conditions remain the same, it could help the bowlers on the first day."

That is a worry for an India side who have a dreadful record at the Chinnaswamy stadium. They have won only four times in 18 attempts, their last victory coming in 1995 against New Zealand, and they have lost four of their last seven.

Showers are forecast for the first two days but if the pitch dries out, runs should flow. In the last five Tests the average first-innings score is 487.

Match odds
It is no surprise to see the draw odds on at [1.90] but the way the market splits from that point is remarkable. India, 1-0 up, are the [4.50] outsiders with Australia, who have never won a Test in India under captain Ricky Ponting, [3.90].

Clearly the concerns over the pitch and India's injury problems have had an impact. But the hosts, Zaheer Khan in particular, have bowlers who are as capable as Australia of taking advantage. One could even argue that in a game which Australia have to take 20 wickets, the loss of Bollinger is mortal blow.

In short, it is difficult to understand the market. It would be a major surprise if India are unable to get enough of a foothold in the game to force that price down so the advice would be to take it and look to lay off closer to even money.

Top batsman
Mike Hussey and Ponting both hit centuries the last time the sides met at the venue in 2008. Hussey is [7.20] and Ponting [4.80]. They are [2.38] and [2.30] respectively for a 50 in first innings.

Simon Katich also has a good record. He has 220 runs in two matches although with scores of six and 37 in Mohali he may not be in great touch. Shane Watson, who impressed in that game with a first-innings ton, is [5.10] for top bat.

For India, avoid VVS Laxman and Rahul Dravid. Since 1990, both have poor records in Bangalore, VVS averaging 26 and Dravid only 21. Virender Sehwag, with a mark of 56, is the top-rated home hitter. He is [4.70] for honours and [2.12] for a first dig 50.

Sachin Tendulkar has an average of 50 and is [4.60] to outscore his teammates. He is [2.28] for a 50.

Featured market
In the last six matches, a bowler has taken five wickets in an innings 10 times. You can bet [1.96] that it happens again.

Recommended bet: Back-to-lay India at [4.50]

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