Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 19 November 2007 / Leave a comment

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins tells us why the omens aren't good for Pakistan backers

IN a region where religion rules and the dos and don'ts of the respective faiths occupy the minds on a 24-7 basis - cricket fans can be forgiven for a few moments of weakness over the next few weeks.

That is because whether one is Muslim, Hindu, Sikh or Christian, one is likely to be fretting about the India versus Pakistan three-Test series, which starts in Delhi in the early hours of Thursday morning.

Whatever the chosen faith, make no mistake that cricket is a religion in these parts and for the all the rules and regulations laid down, there is one big no-no: don't lose to your rivals at home.

Unsurprisingly given that agitated history between India and Pakistan, it has been pretty much adhered to down the years, save for a few lapses of indiscipline.

Normally emotion should be left well alone when it comes to deciding where to place your money, but in a Indo-Pak encounter it is folly to forget the fervour which players are whipped in to.

That is why it would be surprising to see India slip up against their neighbours. If they did, cue the burning of flags, effigies and the mobs outside players' houses. Early Betfair odds of India winning the series [1.8] look decent value.

Pakistan have won only one series in seven in India (in 1987 with a bowling line-up of Imran Khan, Wasim Akram and Abdul Qadir which puts today's protagonists in the shade) and just four Test wins there out of a possible 29.

India have won one series in eight in Pakistan and just two Tests out of a possible 26. Told you losing at home to your biggest rivals was a big no-no.

The hosts this time have little to worry about. Pakistan have lost three of their last four series and their only win in that period came against a hapless West Indies outfit.

Perhaps more importantly they are without Mohammad Asif, their fast bowling spearhead. Asif has an elbow injury so Mohammad Sami - he who sprayed it around in England two years ago - has been called up.

Really teams do not want to be taking on India in their back yard - only Australia have won there in the last seven years - without their first-choice bowling attack.

A boost for Pakistan is that India have managed to weaken their batting by not doing their research.

Virender Sehwag has been left out of the squad for the first two Tests as the selectors have forgotten his record against Pakistan - he averages more than 90 and has finished as India's top series runscorer in each of the three series he has played.

That leaves it wide open for Sachin Tendulkar, who looks in fine touch, to torment Pakistan given Rahul Dravid is not in the best of nick.

India's greatest concern will be Mohammad Yousuf, who has a fine record against them. But they can pin their hopes on new captain, Anil Kumble, removing him. Kumble has dismissed Yousuf seven times (only Muttiah Muralitharan has got him out more). If that trend continues,
Kumble and India should avoid that big no-no.

2006 - Pakistan 1 India 0

Top India runscorers
294 V Sehwag
241 R Dravid

Top Pakistan runscorers
199 Y Khan
173 M Yousuf

2005 - India 1 Pakistan 1

Top India runscorers
544 V Sehwag
333 R Dravid

Top Pakistan runscorers
508 Y Khan
401 Inzamam

2004 - Pakistan 1 India 2

Top India runscorers
438 V Sehwag
309 R Dravid

Top Pakistan runscorers
280 M Yousuf
219 Inzamam

Tags: cricket betting, India cricket, Mohammad Yousuf, Pakistan cricket